Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Tightens as Talarico Holds Leads in Recent Polls
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Poll Landscape Shows Talarico Ahead
A SoCal Strategies poll conducted September 12-13 among 649 likely voters gave Democratic state Rep. James Talarico a 50 % share versus 45 % for Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Earlier surveys show similar margins: an AARP poll of 895 likely voters (Aug. 30-Sept. 1) recorded 48 % for Talarico and 44 % for Paxton; a YouGov/Univision poll (Aug. 27-Sept. 4) found Talarico up 5 points at 48 % to 43 %; and an Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation poll (Aug. 24-26) produced a statistical dead-heat at 44 % to 43.4 %. All polls carry margins of error ranging from ±3.3 to ±4 percentage points.
Demographic Shifts and Numbers
The September poll indicates Talarico leads among Hispanic voters (38 % vs. 10 % in June) and independent voters (45 % vs. 10 %). He also gains modest support from self-identified Republicans (12 %). Paxton retains advantages with white voters (56 % to 39 %) and older age groups: 56 % of voters 50 years or older favor Paxton, while Talarico trails among those 45-64 (46 % to 49 %). Younger voters (18-29) favor Talarico at 46 %.
Official Statements & Campaign Positions
Talarico positions himself as a moderate, saying he aims to “live up to” the service record of Sen. John Cornyn and noting he would not support transgender athletes competing in women’s sports.