Full Breakdown
Late September UK Weather Outlook: Warm Spells, Drought Concerns and El Niño Influence
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Core Event – Forecast for Late September
Temperatures are expected to rise above the seasonal average in the south, with “rather warm days” possible later in the month, while nights stay relatively cool. No three-day stretch is projected to meet the Met Office heat-wave threshold (28 °C in the southeast, 25 °C elsewhere). High-pressure influence later in September could bring longer dry interludes and above-average daytime temperatures.
Background & Context
The summer of 2026 was the hottest on record for the UK, with a mean temperature of 16.5 °C across June-August, surpassing the previous record of 16.1 °C. The highest temperature of the season was 38.1 °C on 13 August at Kew Gardens. Five heatwaves contributed to widespread drought, prompting the National Drought Group to convene on 10 September. Simultaneously, a near-record El Niño event is expected to increase the likelihood of a wetter, stormier autumn, a pattern historically linked to warmer and wetter conditions in the UK.
Data & Statistics
- Heat-wave threshold: 28 °C (southeast) / 25 °C (rest of the country).
- Forecasted highs: up to 29 °C on 25 September; 23 °C in Greater Manchester on 13–14 September (Met Office); 24–25 °C in southern England early in the week.
- Summer mean temperature: 16.5 °C (June-August).
- Record summer high: 38.1 °C on 13 August (Kew Gardens).
- Rainfall deficit: only 64 % of expected seasonal rainfall received, leaving three-quarters of England still in drought.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The Daily Star forecasts peak temperatures of 29 °C on 25 September, suggesting a “sweltering sunshine” scenario, whereas the BBC and Met Office both state that projected temperatures will remain below heat-wave criteria, with highs generally in the mid-20s. No source provides a definitive probability for reaching 29 °C, leaving a gap between the more extreme media projection and the official meteorological outlook.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Changeable over the next few days and feeling fresher. Sunshine and showers will spread across the region and it will turn increasingly windy.” — Met Office
- “We’re experiencing our third drought in five years and the recent rainfall, while welcome, is not yet enough to replenish all the water we’ve used this summer.” — Emma Hardy, HERE water minister
- “We are funding more on-farm reservoirs, and we are also strengthening the country’s water infrastructure with nine new major reservoirs.” — Ms Hardy, HERE water minister
- “We’re experiencing our third drought in five years and the recent rainfall, while welcome, is not yet enough to replenish all the water we’ve used this summer. Article continues below” — Emma Hardy, HERE water minister
What’s Next
The Met Office indicates that high-pressure dominance later in September could produce “settled conditions” with warmer days and cooler mornings. Seasonal outlooks also highlight an increased chance of “wetter than average” autumn conditions linked to the ongoing El Niño, though officials caution that El Niño is only one of several climate drivers and does not guarantee specific outcomes. Monitoring of drought metrics and flood risk will continue throughout the autumn months.