Prediction Markets Anticipate Record U.S. Gas Prices in 2026

Traders on the Kalshi prediction-market platform are assigning a high probability that average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed recent levels in 2026. The market shows a 71 % chance that the national average will rise above $4.60 per gallon, a 57 % chance of topping $4.80, and just over a 40 % chance of crossing the $5.00 threshold. These contracts are settled using data from the American Automobile Association (AAA).

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U.S. crude oil prices have climbed back above $100 per barrel, pushing gasoline prices to multi-month highs. According to AAA’s national average, pump prices peaked at $4.56 per gallon on May 21. The most recent record high of just over $5 per gallon occurred in June 2022. The present price environment therefore sits close to historic peaks, providing the backdrop for traders’ expectations.

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Kalshi’s odds reflect collective sentiment among market participants rather than official forecasts. The 71 % probability for prices above $4.60 suggests a strong consensus that the upward trend will continue. The 57 % likelihood of exceeding $4.80 and the roughly 40 % chance of breaching $5.00 indicate that a substantial minority of traders anticipate even more pronounced price spikes. All figures are derived from the platform’s contract pricing, which references AAA’s reported averages.

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If the projected price levels materialize, American motorists could face higher out-of-pocket fuel costs, potentially increasing overall household spending on transportation. While the prediction market data capture current expectations, they do not guarantee future price movements; actual outcomes will depend on a range of factors, including crude-oil supply dynamics, refinery capacity, and broader economic conditions.

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