Story perspectives

Markets See 85% Chance Fed’s 25-Point Rate Hike

By Drooid · Sep 14, 2026, 11:04 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Story summary

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to lead a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Sep 15-16 meeting.
Markets assign an 85%-92% chance of a rate increase this week.
July dissenters Lorie Logan, Beth Hammack and Neel Kashkari back the hike, requiring four more votes.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller urged patience, favoring a hold on Sep 3.
U.S. President Donald Trump called the Fed chair a “numbskull” and “moron”, demanding lower rates.

History

Historical Context

In October 1981, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker raised the federal funds rate to a record 20% to combat soaring inflation. Volcker’s decisive action, backed by Treasury Secretary Donald Regan’s $2 billion open-market operations, forced inflation down from 13.5% to 6.2% by 1983. Today's Fed debate, with Chair Kevin Warsh, Governors Lorie Logan, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and President Donald Trump’s criticism, echoes the 1981 clash over monetary independence. The 1981 precedent suggests that resolute rate hikes, despite political pushback, can restore price stability and shape future monetary credibility.

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Story summary

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to lead a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Sep 15-16 meeting.
Markets assign an 85%-92% chance of a rate increase this week.
July dissenters Lorie Logan, Beth Hammack and Neel Kashkari back the hike, requiring four more votes.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller urged patience, favoring a hold on Sep 3.
U.S. President Donald Trump called the Fed chair a “numbskull” and “moron”, demanding lower rates.

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