Story perspectives

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Deadlocked in New Runoff Polls

By Drooid · Sep 14, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Lula Bolsonaro Tie

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in recent runoff polls.
An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll of 5,000 people (Sep 4-9) gave Lula 46.2% and Bolsonaro 46.4% in a runoff.
A Datafolha survey of 2,002 voters (Sep 8-10) showed a runoff tie with Lula 46% and Bolsonaro 44%.
A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll of 2,003 respondents (Sep 11-13) gave Lula 47% and Bolsonaro 46% in a runoff.

Summary

Flávio Bolsonaro Investigated

Flávio Bolsonaro faces a police investigation for corruption financing a biopic of his father’s assassination attempt.
He vowed to appoint five judges to 11-member Supreme Court, opposing abortion and drugs.
He pledged to lower the criminal responsibility age and introduce chemical castration for rapists.
Justice André Mendonça lifted secrecy on Police reports about Justice Alexandre de Moraes.
President Lula demanded full public disclosure of the Banco Master investigation and accountability.

History

Historical Context

After Dilma Rousseff’s 2016 impeachment and Michel Temer’s unpopular term, the 2018 runoff on 28 October saw Jair Bolsonaro defeat Fernando Haddad with 55.13% of the vote, launching a right-wing shift. Today, tied runoff polls between Lula da Silva and Bolsonaro’s son Flávio echo that volatility, while the Supreme Court probes alleged corruption in the Bolsonaro family.

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Lula Bolsonaro Tie

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in recent runoff polls.
An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll of 5,000 people (Sep 4-9) gave Lula 46.2% and Bolsonaro 46.4% in a runoff.
A Datafolha survey of 2,002 voters (Sep 8-10) showed a runoff tie with Lula 46% and Bolsonaro 44%.
A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll of 2,003 respondents (Sep 11-13) gave Lula 47% and Bolsonaro 46% in a runoff.

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