Full Breakdown
Georgia Senate Race Tightens as Polls Favor Incumbent Jon Ossoff
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Recent Polls and a Late Gubernatorial Endorsement
Two new surveys released within the 50-day window before the November 3 midterms show Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff ahead of Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Collins. The Trafalgar Group poll (Sept 10-12) found Ossoff at 49.4 % and Collins at 42.8 %, a 6.6-point advantage. An InsiderAdvantage poll (Aug 16-17) reported Ossoff at 50 % versus Collins at 43 %. In the same period, Governor Brian Kemp announced his endorsement of Collins, a shift from his earlier opposition during the GOP primary.
Background & Context
Georgia has moved from a reliably Republican stronghold in the 2000s and 2010s to a competitive battleground, driven by rapid growth in the Atlanta metro area. The state voted for Donald Trump by roughly 2 points in the 2024 presidential election after backing Joe Biden by about 0.2 points in 2020. The Senate seat is one of two Democratic-held positions in states Trump won in 2024, keeping it in focus as control of the 100-member chamber hangs in the balance.
Data & Statistics
- Trafalgar Group (Sept 10-12): Ossoff 49.4 %, Collins 42.8 %; Libertarian Allen Buckley 1.3 %; undecided 6.5 %; margin of error ±2.9 pp.
- InsiderAdvantage (Aug 16-17): Ossoff 50 %, Collins 43 %; undecided 7 %; margin of error ±3.46 pp.
- AARP (July 13-16): Ossoff 43 %, Collins 52 %; margin of error ±3 pp.
- Wick (June 27-30): Ossoff 46.7 %, Collins 42.9 %; margin of error ±2.9 pp.
- Fox News (June 23-27): Ossoff 56 %, Collins 43 %; margin of error ±3 pp.
Demographic splits from the Trafalgar poll show Ossoff leading women 53.9 % to 38.6 % and Black voters 59.9 % to 32.8 %. Collins led men 47.7 % to 44.2 % and voters 65 years and older 51.6 % to 40 %.
Official Statements & Responses
Governor Brian Kemp said, “I’m proud to endorse Mike Collins for the U.S. Senate, and I know he’ll always put Georgia first.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls released within weeks of each other display a range of leads for Ossoff—from a 13-point advantage in a June Fox News survey to a 9-point deficit in the July AARP poll. The varying methodologies (registered voters vs. likely voters) and sample sizes create uncertainty about the precise state of the race, especially given the 6.5 % of respondents still undecided in the most recent Trafalgar poll.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I'm proud to endorse Mike Collins for the U.S. Senate, and I know he'll always put Georgia first,” — Brian Kemp, governor
What’s Next
Early voting begins on October 13, giving undecided voters a chance to cast ballots before Election Day on November 3. A statewide televised debate between Ossoff and Collins is slated for early October, offering voters a direct comparison of the candidates’ positions. The race will remain a key indicator of partisan momentum heading into the final weeks of the 2026 midterms.