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FedWatch Shows 90.7% Chance of 25-Bp September Hike

By Drooid · Sep 15, 2026, 4:13 AM UTC · How we work

Summary

Warsh to Raise Rates

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to raise the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point.
CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows a 90.7% chance of a hike at the September 16 meeting.
August CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, with core CPI at 2.4% and PPI at 5.4%.
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far above July’s 21,000 gain.
Brent crude hit $107.82 and WTI $102.82.

Summary

Kashkari Calls Hike

Fed voting members Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan urged a rate hike.
Mark Zandi warned credit-card rates above 20% could climb to record highs after the hike.
WalletHub projects new-car loan APRs will increase about 12 basis points after a 25-bp hike.
Rodney Williams said variable-rate borrowers will feel higher payments within one to two billing cycles.

History

Historical Context

In August 1979, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker dramatically raised the federal funds rate to 11% to curb soaring inflation. Supported by Treasury Secretary William Simon and the FOMC, the hike lifted the prime rate above 12% and cut CPI growth from 13% to 7%. Today, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and voting members Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan are again pushing a 0.25-point hike, echoing Volcker’s aggressive stance. If implemented, the increase could lift consumer loan APRs above 20%, mirroring the early-1980s credit-cost surge that reshaped borrowing habits.

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Warsh to Raise Rates

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to raise the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point.
CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows a 90.7% chance of a hike at the September 16 meeting.
August CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, with core CPI at 2.4% and PPI at 5.4%.
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far above July’s 21,000 gain.
Brent crude hit $107.82 and WTI $102.82.

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