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Bundibugyo Ebola Outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo Peaks and Declines

By Drooid · · How we work

Core Event: Authorities Announce Peak and Decline in New Cases

The Congolese health ministry reported that the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak, declared on 15 May 2026, has passed its peak. New infections have fallen from roughly 120 cases per day to about 80, and several health zones have gone more than 42 days without a new case. The ministry said the epidemic is now “under control.”

Background & Context

The outbreak is the 17th Ebola event in the DRC since 1976 and is concentrated in Ituri province, where armed conflict hampers response. The Bundibugyo strain differs from the more common Zaire strain and currently has no approved vaccine, although the Ervebo vaccine for Zaire Ebola is being used for health-worker protection.

Data & Statistics

  • Confirmed cases: 7,200 (including 3,475 deaths) as of 14 September 2026.
  • New confirmed cases since 10 September: 258 with 126 additional deaths.
  • Affected health zones: 62 of 167 across seven provinces; 88 % of identified contacts are under follow-up.
  • Health-worker infections: 155 with 45 deaths.
  • Vaccine stock: 70,000 doses of Ervebo allocated for health-worker use.
  • Funding: over $500 million pledged for response activities.

Official Statements & Responses

Health Minister Samuel Roger Kamba said the decline reflects strict preventive measures and urged continued vigilance. WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus described the spread as “unprecedented” and, in August, warned it remained “far from being under control.” CEPI announced funding for multiple Bundibugyo vaccine candidates, including an rVSV platform being prepared by Hilleman Laboratories, with manufacturing expected by year-end.

Verbatim Quotes

  • “It has been more than 22 days since 10 of the 62 health zones have reported new cases. And so we can now definitively remove six health zones from the list because they have gone more than 42 days without new cases, and we can remove four health zones that have gone more than 21 days without a new case,” — Samuel Roger Kamba
  • “A large portion of the mortality – 60 to 70% of deaths – comes from the community. The list of contacts we have just keeps growing. Epidemiologists say we’ve reached the peak when all cases come from the list of contacts.” — Jean Kaseya
  • “By the end of the year, we expect to have manufactured our first batch of vaccine candidate doses, ready to provide supply for potential clinical trials,” — Erlyani Hamid

Conflicting Reports & Gaps

The ministry’s declaration of control contrasts with WHO’s assessment that the epidemic remains “far from being under control.” While the ministry cites a reduction in daily cases, WHO highlights ongoing high transmission, limited cross-protection from existing vaccines, and incomplete data on community mortality. No independent verification of the ministry’s metrics has been published.

What’s Next

  • Vaccine Development: Hilleman Laboratories aims to produce its first batch of Bundibugyo vaccine candidates by the end of 2026.
  • Surveillance: WHO and Africa CDC will continue weekly updates, monitoring contact-tracing coverage and health-zone status.
  • Funding & Logistics: International donors have pledged additional resources to sustain frontline staffing, PPE, and laboratory capacity across the affected provinces.