Full Breakdown
Berlin State Election 2024: Housing, Radical Parties, and Disenfranchised Voters
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event – Tight Race Ahead of the September 20 State Election
Berlin’s state election on September 20 will decide the city-state parliament and the next mayor. The latest polls show Die Linke and the CDU virtually tied for first, with the AfD close behind. Housing policy, especially the 2021 referendum to expropriate large real-estate owners, dominates the campaign.
Background & Context – A Fragmented City and a Parallel Saxony-Anhalt Contest
Berlin’s 3.9 million residents live in atomised districts (“Kiez”), creating a patchwork of strongholds: central districts lean Green or Left, outer districts favour the CDU and, in some areas, the AfD. The election follows a Saxony-Anhalt vote on September 6, where the AfD hopes for a historic breakthrough, a contrast to Berlin’s more moderate outlook.
Data & Statistics – Polls, Referendum Support, and Voter Eligibility
- Die Linke: 23 % (ZDF) / 21 % (Infratest dimap)
- CDU: 21 % (ZDF) / 20 % (Infratest dimap)
- AfD: 17 % (ZDF) / 18 % (Infratest dimap)
- Greens: 16 % (both)
- SPD: 10 % (ZDF) / 12 % (Infratest dimap)
- Housing referendum: 59 % voted to expropriate firms with >3,000 units.
- Top issue: 32 % named housing the most important problem.
- Non-citizen disenfranchisement: ~976 000 adults lack German citizenship and cannot vote.
- Naturalisation: 39 000 people granted citizenship in 2025, 17 000 more than in 2024.
Official Statements & Responses – Party Leaders Outline Their Strategies
Kerstin Wolter, co-leader of Die Linke in Berlin, rejected the “populist” label for the housing agenda, noting the expropriation clause is embedded in the Basic Law of 1949, though never invoked. She emphasized that “the rent situation is catastrophic” and drives voter radicalisation.
Criticism & Opposition – Concerns Over Voting Rights and the Far-Right Surge
Remlinger criticised FDP proposals that foreign residents could form parties and “take over the government,” calling the stance “exasperating.”
On-the-Ground Reports – Residents Feel the Impact of Housing Costs and Exclusion
Abdu Taviq, an Egyptian software developer, praised Berlin’s cultural life but lamented “rapidly rising rental prices” and “opaque bureaucracy.” He expressed frustration at being unable to vote despite paying taxes, noting cuts to kindergartens and German-language courses affect him directly.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps – Divergent Poll Numbers and Uncertain Voter Intentions
The ZDF and Infratest dimap surveys differ by up to two points for the three leading parties, reflecting the race’s tightness. Both institutes note that recent scandals—such as the investigation into SPD candidate Steffen Krach that began on September 3—may not yet be fully captured. A substantial share of the electorate remains undecided: ZDF reports 28 % undecided, while Infratest dimap notes a combined 32 % either undecided or unlikely to vote.
What’s Next – Final Polls and the Election Day
A last-minute poll is scheduled for September 17 (ZDF Politbarometer Extra), expected to shape the final narrative before the September 20 election. The outcome will determine whether Berlin forms a coalition led by Die Linke or the CDU, and how the city addresses its housing crisis and the political integration of its diverse population.