Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Expected to Remain Weak Amid Strengthening El Niño

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is situated about 950 mi west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and is moving west at roughly 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts, placing the system below tropical-storm strength. The agency notes “little change in strength” is expected over the next couple of days and that no coastal watches or warnings are in effect because the depression poses no direct threat to land. Increasing dry air and wind shear are expected to keep the system weak and cause it to dissipate later this week well southeast of Hawaii.

Newsweek

El Niño conditions, which are currently strengthening, shape the broader environment for tropical cyclones. The same pattern of enhanced wind shear and dry air linked to the current El Niño is contributing to the limited development of Fifteen-E.

Newsweek

The NHC’s public advisory emphasizes that the depression is unlikely to intensify and that any potential impacts on the United States are negligible.

Newsweek

• “While there initially seemed like a window for this to become a tropical storm, this dry air, combined with increasing wind shear will likely prevent any intensification of TD 15-E, keeping it as a tropical depression over the next few days before it eventually loses organization and dissipates later this week, well southeast of Hawaii,” — Nick Arman

Newsweek

• “El Niño conditions are associated with fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, especially in the Western Atlantic Ocean Basin,” — Matthew Rosencrans

Newsweek

Forecasters are also monitoring a separate low-pressure area that could form south of southwestern Mexico by the end of the week or early the following week. The NHC assesses a near-zero chance of tropical-cyclone development within 48 hours and a 20 percent chance over the next seven days as the disturbance moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

Newsweek