Story perspectives

Democrats’ Senate-control odds rise to 58.6%

By Drooid · Sep 15, 2026, 4:58 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Story summary

Nate Silver's model shows Democrats' Senate-control probability at 58.6%.
The probability increased from 50.6% on September 6 to 58.6% on September 14.
Polling gains in Texas, Ohio and Michigan added four Democratic seats and removed four Republican seats.
In Texas, Rep. James Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton by 2–5 points in three recent polls.
Kalshi’s Senate market priced Democrats at 53% versus Republicans 47% on $12.7 million traded.

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Story summary

Nate Silver's model shows Democrats' Senate-control probability at 58.6%.
The probability increased from 50.6% on September 6 to 58.6% on September 14.
Polling gains in Texas, Ohio and Michigan added four Democratic seats and removed four Republican seats.
In Texas, Rep. James Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton by 2–5 points in three recent polls.
Kalshi’s Senate market priced Democrats at 53% versus Republicans 47% on $12.7 million traded.