Full Breakdown
Israeli Election Looms Amid Fragmented Polls and Legal Battles Over Party Eligibility
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Election Deadlock and Poll Fragmentation
Post-list polls show a divided Knesset outlook with neither the pro-Netanyahu bloc nor the opposition “change bloc” reaching the 61 seats needed for a majority. In four of five surveys, Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party appears as the largest single list (22–25 seats). The i24NEWS poll places Likud at 27 seats, while other polls keep it between 19 and 23. The Religious Zionist Party and Ofer Winter’s People of Israel each clear the threshold with four to five seats. Arab parties collectively hold about 12 seats. No bloc exceeds 53 seats in any poll, leaving the outcome uncertain.
Background & Context
After the deadline for submitting Knesset candidate lists, parties recalibrated strategies amid fears of another stalemate. Former Shin Bet chief Yoram Cohen, now No. 2 on Eisenkot’s Yashar list, has explored contingency plans for a minority government supported by Arab parties and later broadened to include right-wing Zionist factions—excluding a Netanyahu-led Likud.
Coalition Scenarios Discussed by Former Shin Bet Head
Cohen told Channel 12 that if the opposition bloc fails to secure a majority, Yashar could form a minority government with Arab support and subsequently invite parties such as Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party and a post-Netanyahu Likud, provided they accept Yashar’s principles. He ruled out cooperation with Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, calling Ben-Gvir “a racist.”
“But regarding Likud, and Smotrich as well, I would approach them if they accepted our principles,” — Eisenkot. Yoram Cohen
Legal Challenges to Party Eligibility
The opposition Democrats party filed a petition with the Central Elections Committee on September 15, 2026, seeking to bar Otzma Yehudit on grounds of incitement to racism. Simultaneously, Likud announced on September 14, 2026, its intent to request the disqualification of the Joint List and Ra’am, accusing both of supporting “terrorism.” Neither petition has secured a ruling; the Supreme Court historically overturns such committee decisions.
Data & Statistics
- Yashar: 22–25 seats (Kan News, i24NEWS, Channel 12, Maariv)
- Likud: 19–27 seats (i24NEWS, Channel 13, Channel 12)
- Religious Zionist Party: 5–8 seats
- People of Israel (Ofer Winter): 4–5 seats
- Hendel-Zelekha Economic Party: 4 seats in Kan News and Times of Israel; below threshold elsewhere
- Arab parties (Joint List, Ra’am, others): 12–16 seats total
Official Statements & Responses
The Democrats described Otzma Yehudit as “racist” and accused its lawmakers of defying Supreme Court orders. Cohen emphasized that a post-Netanyahu Likud could join a coalition only if it adheres to Yashar’s principles.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls diverge on which party leads: i24NEWS places Likud ahead, whereas most other surveys rank Yashar first. The Hendel-Zelekha party’s threshold status varies between polls, creating uncertainty about its parliamentary presence. No definitive ruling exists yet on any disqualification petitions.
What’s Next
The election is scheduled for October 27. The Central Elections Committee must decide on the disqualification petitions before the vote, with any rulings subject to Supreme Court review. Should the ballot again produce a deadlock, parties have indicated willingness to explore minority-government arrangements or broader Zionist coalitions, though concrete negotiations are expected only after the count.