Full Breakdown
Declining Confidence in the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Findings on Election Fairness Expectations
A nationwide survey by the Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections at UC San Diego found that 49 % expect the November 2026 midterms to be “free and fair,” 23 % do not, and 28 % are unsure. Confidence that ballots will be counted accurately varies by party: 63 % of Democrats, 58 % of Republicans and 49 % of independents say they are “somewhat” or “very” confident. 53 % of Republicans distrust ballot-count accuracy, compared with 19 % of Democrats.
Background and Context
Trust in U.S. elections has eroded since the 2024 presidential contest, when 77 % expressed confidence that votes were counted as intended. By January 2026 that confidence fell to 60 %, and a September 2026 survey recorded a further decline to 55 %. The drop is evident across partisan groups, with independents showing the sharpest recent decline.
The survey was conducted amid unprecedented claims of widespread voter fraud from former President Donald Trump, claims that election experts say lack evidence. Simultaneously, redistricting battles—notably a 2025 Texas effort and California’s Proposition 50—have kept gerrymandering in the public eye. Concerns about immigration enforcement at polling places and the potential impact of AI-generated “deepfakes” also feature prominently in respondents’ definitions of a “free and fair” election.
Data and Statistics
- Overall trust in vote counting: 55 % confident (down from 77 % after 2024).
- Party-specific confidence: 63 % Democrats, 58 % Republicans, 49 % independents.
- Distrust of ballot-count accuracy: 53 % Republicans vs. 19 % Democrats.
- Distrust of non-citizen voting: 52 % Republicans, 12 % Democrats.
- Gerrymandering concerns: 48 % of Democrats and independents, 36 % of Republicans distrust district lines.
- Deepfake worries: roughly three-quarters of respondents (? 75 %) fear AI-generated media could affect the midterms.
- ICE intimidation expectations: 49 % of Black, 45 % of Hispanic, 40 % of Asian American and Pacific Islander respondents anticipate ICE presence at polling sites, versus 11 % of white respondents.
Official Statements & Responses
Brenden Nyhan, a Dartmouth College professor, observed that exposure to former President Trump’s tweets reduces trust and increases beliefs that elections are rigged, but only among his supporters. He also noted that distrust may paradoxically motivate higher voter turnout, as both parties view elections as winnable contests.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
All sources report the same core percentages for overall fairness expectations (49 % yes, 23 % no, 28 % unsure) and similar trends in confidence decline, indicating no substantive numerical conflict. The survey does not address how the identified concerns will translate into actual voter behavior on Election Day, leaving that impact uncertain.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Nobody has loved the redistricting wars that have been a big story throughout this year,” — Thad Kousser, co-director
- “What stands out is that trust isn't declining within just one party – we're seeing confidence fall among Democrats, Republicans and independents,” — Thad Kousser
- “We can show directly that exposure to (Trump’s tweets) experimentally reduced trust and confidence in elections, increased beliefs that elections are rigged, but only among his supporters,” — Brenden Nyhan
What’s Next
The November 2026 midterm elections will test whether the documented skepticism influences turnout, ballot-count verification processes, and post-election legitimacy assessments. Researchers anticipate that messaging from political leaders, especially former President Trump, will continue to shape public perceptions in the weeks leading up to the vote.