Full Breakdown
Houthi Advances Threaten Global Oil Flow Amid Gulf Ally Rift
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Houthi Seizure of Bab al-Mandeb and Pipeline Attack
In the past week the Iran-backed Houthi rebels have taken control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a 20-mile-wide waterway that has become Saudi Arabia’s primary export route after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. The group also launched a strike on Saudi Arabia’s 745-mile East-West oil pipeline, which the Wall Street Journal reported likely halted the line for weeks. The combined actions enable the Houthis to threaten any Saudi vessel attempting to cross the strait.
Regional Alliances Fracture
The Houthi offensive coincided with growing infighting among U.S. allies in the Gulf. Anti-Houthi forces backed by the United Arab Emirates had previously held Perim Island in the strait, but Saudi forces bombed weapons shipments destined for those groups. The Wall Street Journal said the UAE subsequently withdrew its forces, fracturing the coalition that had helped maintain a truce in Yemen since 2022.
Immediate Impact on Oil Supply and Prices
The disruption pushed crude prices up to $108 a barrel, according to the reporting outlet. Al-Masirah TV via AP noted that Saudi Arabia’s crude exports from its main Red Sea port fell by nearly half last month to about 2.5 million barrels per day. Industry insiders told The Guardian that the attack on the East-West pipeline left the port of Yanbu with only five to seven days of export capacity remaining.
Official Responses
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly asked President Trump for U.S. military assistance; multiple reports say Trump agreed to help but declined to launch new attacks. Saudi officials have faced criticism for a perceived slow response, with anti-Houthi officials urging faster air-strike support that they say was not provided.
Outlook for Saudi Exports
With the Bab al-Mandeb under Houthi control and the East-West pipeline offline, Saudi Arabia’s ability to move oil via the Red Sea is severely constrained. The limited export capacity at Yanbu and the reduced flow from the main port suggest further declines in Saudi crude shipments until the strait is reopened or alternative routes are secured.