Record-High Jihadist Violence Swells Across the Sahel

Incidents involving al-Qaida- and Islamic-State-linked groups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have surged dramatically. The conflict monitor Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) recorded 2,845 events in 2025, up from 63 in 2016, and 2,145 events have already been logged this year. If the trend continues, the annual total could exceed 3,000 incidents. The United Nations reported more than 9,000 deaths from security incidents across the three countries in 2025, making the Sahel one of the world’s deadliest regions for terrorism-related fatalities.

The Guardian

The 2024-25 joint offensive in Mali by the al-Qaida-linked Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) captured strategic towns, killed Mali’s defence minister and military intelligence chief, and forced Russian mercenaries to surrender in Kidal. Since then, JNIM has broadened its control, killing additional soldiers and Russian fighters while extending operations into neighbouring states. In Burkina Faso, JNIM claimed more than 130 attacks in 2026, moving closer to the capital Ouagadougou. In Niger, the group reported at least 17 attacks, though Islamic State in the Greater Sahara remains more active there, according to a recent UN intelligence-based report.

The Guardian

• Event growth: 63 (2016) -> 2,845 (2025) -> >3,000 projected (2026).

The Guardian

• Deaths: >9,000 in 2025 across the three Sahel states (UN).

The Guardian

• Regional actors: JNIM, IS-linked groups, al-Shabaab (Somalia), Russian mercenaries, and government forces all contribute to the high casualty count.

The Guardian

• Comparative strength: ACLED notes al-Shabaab has caused over 10,000 deaths in east Africa during the past 18 months.

The Guardian

The 2026 Global Peace Index report highlighted the Sahel’s concentration of terrorism deaths, emphasizing that while global terrorism fatalities have fallen to their lowest level since 2008, the Sahel’s toll has risen sharply. A recent UN analysis described al-Qaida’s senior leadership as “marginalised” and said its capacity for external operations remains “unclear.” The UN also noted the lack of a formal successor to Ayman al-Zawahiri, with 66-year-old Saif al-Adel presumed to be the de facto leader, though he has not spoken publicly.

The Guardian

• “In the Sahel, Islamic State and al-Qaida now command big areas but these are very localised groups. Not a single attack in Europe or the US has been planned in the Sahel,” — Ulf Laessing, a senior analyst at the Konrad Adenauer foundation in Berlin

The Guardian

• “In east Africa, al-Shabaab remains one of the continent’s deadliest groups, with Acled recording more than 10,000 reported deaths in al-Shabaab-related violence over the past 18 months,” — Peter Bofin, Acled’s senior analyst for south-east Africa

The Guardian

• “Twenty-five years ago it was all about Afghanistan and then Iraq … Africa wasn’t really of interest then. Now its the main area of operations,” — Laessing. Photograph

The Guardian