Full Breakdown
Record Surge in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Interior Arrests Under Trump’s Second Term
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Findings on Arrest Volume and Criminal Conviction Rates
A new analysis shows daily ICE interior arrests more than doubled during President Donald Trump’s second term. Between January 2025 and March 2026, ICE averaged 952 arrests per day, up from a pre-inauguration baseline of 304 per day—a 214 percent increase. The conviction rate fell to 34 percent, the lowest in the 10½-year period, with a 10-point drop for Community Arrests and a 16-point drop for LEA arrests.
Shift in Enforcement Tactics
The study distinguishes Law-Enforcement-Agency (LEA) collaborative arrests and Community Arrests. Community Arrests rose from 17 percent of all apprehensions before the second term to 47 percent during it. Because Community Arrests involve fewer individuals with criminal records, researchers estimate this shift explains about one-quarter of the decline in conviction rates; the remaining three-quarters stem from broader targeting changes.
Geographic Variation
Mapping ICE activity across its 25 regional jurisdictions shows jail-based spikes in El Paso, TX; Miami, FL; New Orleans, LA; and San Antonio, TX. Community Arrest spikes clustered in Boston, MA; Chicago, IL; Newark, NJ; Seattle, WA; and every jurisdiction in California and New York.
Official Statements & Responses
Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin highlighted the record-setting numbers on September 5, writing that “DHS continues to break records” and noting a “third straight month” of new highs for arrests of illegal aliens.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Reuters reported almost 51,000 arrests in August, a monthly record for a third consecutive month. The study’s average of 952 arrests per day translates to roughly 28,500 arrests per month, indicating a discrepancy between the two sources. Both rely on ICE’s administrative data, which capture only formally processed individuals and exclude border-point apprehensions. Researchers note uncertainty about why conviction rates fell within jail-based arrests, citing possible shifts in ICE’s prioritization or changes in local police practices.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Over the past 21 months, plain-clothed, masked, armed, unidentified and untrained federal agents have terrorized Maryland communities from the Eastern Shore to Park Heights, all the way to Washington County,” — Shana Khader, legal director, We Are CASA