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Fed rate-hike odds jump to 92.7% ahead Wednesday

By Drooid · Sep 16, 2026, 2:59 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Fed Eyes Rate Hike

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its monetary policy decision at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday.
10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.973% and 30-year to 5.347%.
Fed funds futures show a 92.7% probability of a rate hike, up from 33% a month earlier.
U.S. inflation was 3.4% in August, with July PCE index up 3.7% year-over-year.
Oil prices stayed above $100 a barrel, adding to inflation concerns.

Summary

Saudi Pipeline Shutdown

Saudi pipeline shutdown sparked supply-shortage worries, adding geopolitical risk to markets.
Wells Fargo strategist Ohsung Kwon cut the year-end S&P 500 target to 7,700, forecasting a 5-10% decline.
AI executives called for slower advanced-AI development because of safety concerns, pressuring tech shares.
Bitcoin fell about 3.6% to $76,208.60, pulling crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase lower.
Brent crude surged past $107 per barrel, reflecting heightened Middle East tensions.

History

Historical Context

In the late 1970s, oil price shocks drove U.S. inflation above 10%, prompting President Carter to appoint Paul Volcker as Fed chairman in August 1979. Volcker’s board raised the federal funds rate from 11.5% to a 17.6% peak in April 1980, triggering the 1980 recession. The episode set a precedent for today’s aggressive policy stance amid renewed inflation concerns.

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Fed Eyes Rate Hike

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its monetary policy decision at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday.
10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.973% and 30-year to 5.347%.
Fed funds futures show a 92.7% probability of a rate hike, up from 33% a month earlier.
U.S. inflation was 3.4% in August, with July PCE index up 3.7% year-over-year.
Oil prices stayed above $100 a barrel, adding to inflation concerns.

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