Full Breakdown
Democrats Open Double-Digit Lead in New Marquette Midterm Poll
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Core Findings of the Marquette Law School Survey
The Marquette Law School poll conducted Sept 2-9 surveyed 864 registered voters and 581 likely voters nationwide. When asked whether they would vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in a hypothetical congressional race held today, 54% said they would choose the Democrat and 41% the Republican, giving Democrats a 13-point lead among likely voters and an 8-point lead among registered voters. This is the largest generic-ballot advantage recorded by Marquette in six national polls this year.
Voter Segments and Issue Preferences
- Independent voters – Democrats lead by roughly 18 points among a broad definition of independents and by about 30 points among “pure” independents; Trump’s approval among independents is below 30%.
- Party unity – 98% of Democrats say they will back the Democratic congressional candidate, compared with 93% of Republicans backing their party’s candidate.
- Issue edges – Among registered voters, Democrats enjoy a 12-point advantage on inflation and cost of living and a 5-point advantage on the economy, issues that previously favored Republicans. President Donald Trump’s approval for handling inflation is 21% among registered voters and has fallen below 50% among Republicans.
Context and Potential Impact on the 2026 Midterms
Historical patterns show the president’s party typically loses ground in midterm elections. President Trump’s national approval rating in the poll is 37%, the lowest in any Marquette survey to date, and his approval among independents mirrors that low level. The combination of a sizable Democratic generic-ballot lead, stronger Democratic voter certainty, and favorable issue positioning could translate into a national vote advantage for Democrats. However, the poll notes that many decisive Senate and House contests are located in states that leaned Republican in 2024, and district maps remain favorable to Republicans. Consequently, Democrats would need a substantial nationwide vote margin to flip either chamber.
Challenges Facing Republicans
Republicans confront two primary obstacles highlighted by the poll:
1. Weakness with independents – the party trails by double-digit margins among voters who are not firmly aligned with either party.
2. Turnout uncertainty – while Trump-loyal Republicans report high certainty of voting, Republicans who are less enthusiastic about Trump and MAGA express lower likelihood of turnout, potentially reducing the GOP’s base advantage.
Overall, the Marquette poll underscores a pronounced Democratic advantage in the national political climate heading into the 2026 midterms, while also flagging structural and geographic factors that could limit the translation of that advantage into congressional control.