Full Breakdown
Indonesia’s 2026 Wildfire Crisis Extends Into November
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event – Fires and Haze Expected to Persist
Indonesia is confronting its most intense wildfire season in 11 years, driven by a “super El Ñiño” that has left forests on Borneo and Sumatra parched. Forestry Minister Raja Juli Antoni told local media on September 16 that the dry spell will likely continue for another month-and-a-half, pushing the start of the rainy season to late October or early November.
Background & Context
The “super” El Ñiño raises sea-surface temperatures, lengthening the dry season and prompting slash-and-burn clearing for palm oil, mining and other agriculture. The 2015 fires caused US $16.1 billion in damages, illustrating the link between El Ñiño-induced dryness and haze.
Data & Statistics
- Land burned: 202,000 ha (? 500,000 ac) Jan-Jul (government); YKAN adds an estimated 600,000 ha in August.
- Respiratory illness: Cases in seven provinces rose from 50,891 on Sept 1 to 113,336 by Sept 9.
- Emissions: 19.7 million t CO2 released during the week to Sept 7, over one-third of global fire emissions that week.
- Economic impact: Celios projects health and economic costs of up to US $6.9 billion (? 123.1 trillion rupiah) for Jan-Aug, including 30 trillion rupiah in lost output and 269.89 billion rupiah in foregone tax revenue.
- Firefighting assets: More than 50 aircraft (43 helicopters, 15 fixed-wing) are deployed; Japan contributed three CH-47 Chinook helicopters.
Official Statements & Responses
President Prabowo Subianto announced on Sept 17 a “zero tolerance” policy for slash-and-burn, directing the State Secretary and the Minister of Law to explore stricter sanctions and urging the House to classify severe fires as “ecological terrorism.” He also ordered removal of exemptions that allow smallholders to use fire.
Malaysia’s Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said the trans-boundary haze issue will be raised during his Jakarta visit from Sept 17-20, emphasizing diplomatic cooperation.
The National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) has mobilized 48,000 officers and over 1,400 volunteers (as of Aug 31) to guard high-risk areas, while the Transport Ministry issued permits for 35 foreign aircraft to assist with water-bombing.
On-the-Ground Reports
Public-health clinic head Popong Solihat reported daily respiratory-illness visits rising from 187 in the first 11 days of September to 422 in August. Volunteers have distributed oxygen cylinders through the “Rumah Oksigen” campaign.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Fire-affected area: Government figures (202,000 ha Jan-Jul) differ sharply from YKAN’s estimate of an additional 600,000 ha in August.
- Company liability: Environment Ministry official Rizal Irawan identified 42 concession holders with high wildfire potential, yet fires in concessions of 19 companies covered 11,047 ha, showing attribution gaps.
- Economic cost: Celios’ US $6.9 billion estimate excludes cross-border losses, while World Bank assessments of the 2015 fires placed total damage at US $16.1 billion.
What’s Next
The rainy season is projected to arrive in late October or early November, offering limited natural relief. President Subianto has tasked the State Secretary and the Ministry of Law with drafting stricter sanctions, and the House is expected to consider legislation classifying large-scale fires as ecological terrorism. Malaysia will continue diplomatic engagement during the Deputy Prime Minister’s Jakarta visit, while Indonesia plans to expand aerial firefighting operations and investigate concession-related fires under strict liability provisions.