Story perspectives

AtlasIntel Poll Shows Lula, Bolsonaro Tied in Runoff

By Drooid · Sep 17, 2026, 3:26 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Story summary

AtlasIntel/Bloomberg simulation shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro tied in a runoff.
The poll gives Bolsonaro 47.2% and Lula 46.8% voter support, within a one-point margin of error.
AtlasIntel surveyed 5,018 respondents from September 11 to September 16, 2026.
First-round projection shows Lula at 44.1% and Bolsonaro at 41.7% ahead of the October 4 election and possible October 25 runoff.

History

Historical Context

In Brazil’s 2022 presidential race, left-wing former president Luiz Inácio Lula defeated incumbent Jair Bolsonaro with 50.9% to 49.1% – a 2.8-point (?2 million-vote) margin, the closest contest ever. The result ended the first re-election bid by an incumbent since the 1997 amendment and left the nation sharply divided, prompting analysts to watch the scheduled 25 October 2026 runoff for renewed tension.

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Story summary

AtlasIntel/Bloomberg simulation shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro tied in a runoff.
The poll gives Bolsonaro 47.2% and Lula 46.8% voter support, within a one-point margin of error.
AtlasIntel surveyed 5,018 respondents from September 11 to September 16, 2026.
First-round projection shows Lula at 44.1% and Bolsonaro at 41.7% ahead of the October 4 election and possible October 25 runoff.

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