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First Ministers Sign MoU Calling for the End of Westminster
By Drooid · · How we work
The MoU Declaring Westminster’s End
On a recent Monday in Cardiff, the First Ministers of Scotland (John Swinney), Wales (Rhun ap Iorwerth), and Northern Ireland (Michelle O’Neill), together with Mary Lou McDonald, president of Sinn Féin and opposition leader in the Republic of Ireland, signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU).
Background and Context
The MoU follows a series of elections that placed nationalist parties in power in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) remains the governing party but lost seats in the most recent election. In Wales, Plaid Cymru formed its first government since May, relying on Labour support. In Northern Ireland, Sinn Féin governs in coalition with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), a unionist party. The agreement echoes earlier calls for independence in each nation and builds on the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, which was held under a UK-wide framework negotiated between then-First Minister Alex Salmond and Prime Minister David Cameron.
Political Stakes and Planned Referendums
John Swinney announced that, after the next Scottish parliamentary election in 2031, he intends to call a referendum on Scottish independence. He argued that “people’s feelings have changed” and cited recent polls suggesting a slim majority now favors secession. The MoU does not name a specific referendum date for Wales or Northern Ireland, and both jurisdictions lack the parliamentary majorities required to trigger a vote under current UK law. Nonetheless, the signatories framed the agreement as a collective step toward “self-determination for the Celtic nations.”
Data and Electoral Figures
- In the most recent Scottish parliamentary election, pro-independence parties (the SNP and the Greens) secured 41 % of the vote.
- The 2014 Scottish independence referendum resulted in 55 % voting to remain in the United Kingdom.
- No specific vote share is provided for Welsh or Northern Irish elections in the source material.
Official Statements and Government Responses
- “The United Kingdom is at its best when people come together around our shared values and problem-solving, rather than division, and the prime minister will continue to ease pressures on household finances, and delivering greater economic security, rather than engaging in constitutional debates or further referendums.” — official spokesperson, prime minister’s official
Conflicting Reports and Gaps
- The MoU does not specify whether a formal referendum is required, yet John Swinney said he will call one for 2031. Legal analysts note that a 2022 British court decision placed the competence for a Scottish self-determination referendum with Westminster, creating uncertainty about the legal pathway.
- Poll data indicating a “slim majority” for Scottish independence is mentioned without precise figures, and no comparable polling is provided for Wales or Northern Ireland.
What’s Next
- John Swinney has signalled a referendum request for 2031, contingent on the outcome of the next Scottish parliamentary election.
- Welsh and Northern Irish leaders have not set dates, but the MoU signals continued coordination on constitutional reform.
- The UK Government has indicated it will continue to address economic issues while avoiding further constitutional debate, leaving the legal route for any future referendums unresolved.