Full Breakdown
Rick Jackson Takes Narrow Lead Over Keisha Lance Bottoms in Latest Georgia Gubernatorial Poll
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
A new Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,019 likely Georgia voters, fielded on September 14, 2026, shows Republican businessman Rick Jackson ahead of Democrat former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. The poll indicates 48 % support for Jackson, 45 % for Bottoms, and 7 % undecided. The three-point margin sits within the poll’s ±3-point sampling error, leaving the race statistically tied as early voting approaches.
Background & Context
Jackson entered the gubernatorial contest late, financing his campaign with personal wealth after defeating incumbent Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in a Republican runoff. Bottoms secured the Democratic nomination by winning the primary outright. Both candidates have consolidated their party bases: Jackson enjoys 89 % support among Republicans, while Bottoms holds 88 % of Democratic voters.
Data & Statistics
- Poll Demographics
*Gender*: Men favor Jackson 53 % to 38 %; women favor Bottoms 51 % to 44 %.
*Age*: Voters 65 + back Jackson 63 % to 34 %; voters under 30 back Bottoms 58 % to 34 %.
*Race/Ethnicity*: Whites support Jackson 66 % vs. 27 % for Bottoms; Black voters support Bottoms 77 % vs. 18 % for Jackson; Hispanics favor Bottoms 52 % to 38 %; other minorities 49 % to 39 % for Bottoms.
*Income*: Jackson leads among households earning $50 k–$200 k; Bottoms leads among incomes above $200 k.
*Marital status*: Married voters prefer Jackson 57 % to 39 %; unmarried voters prefer Bottoms 49 % to 42 %.
*2024 Presidential Alignment*: 83 % of 2024 Trump voters say they will back Jackson; 82 % of 2024 Harris voters say they will back Bottoms.
- Campaign Spending
*Advertising*: Jackson’s campaign has spent $75.8 million on ads, compared with Bottoms’ $8.2 million. Future linear ad reservations show Republicans allocating $40.5 million versus Democrats’ $42 000. Overall, Jackson’s ad outlay is roughly ten-to-one.
- Personal Wealth
A disclosure filed with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reported by Greg Bluestein, indicates Jackson’s net worth exceeds $3 billion.
Official Statements & Responses
Jackson’s campaign says all advertising dollars are his personal funds, rejecting reliance on PACs or party contributions. Bottoms’ campaign coordinates with Project Battleground, which has contributed $7.9 million to her war chest. Both candidates cite strong party support, reflected in the poll’s partisan backing figures.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
While Rasmussen shows Jackson ahead, other recent surveys present divergent leads:
- Quantus Insights: Bottoms 46 % to Jackson 44 %.
- AARP: Bottoms 48 % to Jackson 46 %.
- State Navigate: Bottoms 51 % to Jackson 44 %.
- Fox News: Bottoms 52 % to Jackson 48 % (undecided voters not accounted).
- Wick: Jackson 43.2 % to Bottoms 42.7 %, with 14.1 % undecided.
These discrepancies highlight the race’s volatility and the influence of differing methodologies.
Timeline (Key Milestones)
- September 14, 2026 – Rasmussen Reports conducts its telephone and online poll.
- Early October – Early voting opens and runs for several weeks.
- Early October – A televised debate between Jackson and Bottoms is scheduled.
- Early November – General election day.
- Early December – If no candidate secures a majority, a runoff is planned, with early voting in the preceding weeks.
Why It Matters
Georgia’s gubernatorial race is a bellwether for national dynamics ahead of the 2026 midterms. Demographic divides—particularly along gender, age, and racial lines—mirror broader partisan realignments. The disparity in campaign financing underscores the growing role of personal wealth in state-level contests, raising questions about electoral equity.