Full Breakdown
Netanyahu Bloc Edges Ahead in Latest Israeli Election Polls
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Core Event: Polls Show Narrow Lead for Pro-Netanyahu Bloc
A Channel 13 poll of 886 respondents (margin of error ± 3.3 %) projects parties backing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would win 54 seats in the 120-member Knesset, the opposition 52 seats, and Arab parties 14 seats. Within the bloc, Likud is projected at 18 seats, its lowest recent tally, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leads the opposition with 22 seats.
Other recent surveys show a similarly deadlocked picture but differ on the exact balance:
- KAN News (average) – Yashar 22, Likud 20, Netanyahu bloc 54, opposition 52.
- Channel 14 – right-wing bloc 64 seats, Likud 30, Yashar 21.
- Channel 12 – opposition bloc 66 seats (Zionist 54 + Arab 12), Likud 20.
- Channel 16 – Netanyahu bloc 52, opposition 53, Yashar 21.
Across five polls, Yashar averages 22.2 seats, Likud 21.2, and the Netanyahu bloc 54.4 versus the opposition’s 51. New entrants People of Israel (Ofer Winter) and the Hendel-Zelekha list each clear the electoral threshold with 4 seats.
Background & Context
Israel is heading toward a general election after five elections between 2019 and 2022. The campaign is shaped by Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial (Cases 1000, 2000, 4000) and President Isaac Herzog’s pledge to avoid a second round of voting, citing the “burst of five elections” and the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack as reasons for seeking a stable government.
Data & Statistics
| Poll source | Netanyahu bloc | Opposition bloc | Likud | Yashar | Notable parties (seats) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Channel 13 | 54 | 52 | 18 | 22 | Religious Zionist 8, Otzma Yehudit 8, Yisrael Beytenu 8 |
| Channel 14 | 64 | – | 30 | 21 | B’Yachad 8, United Torah Judaism 7 |
| Channel 12 | – | 66 (Zionist 54 + Arab 12) | 20 | 23 | – |
| Channel 16 | 52 | 53 | 18 | 21 | Democrats 9, Shas 7 |
| KAN News (average) | 54.4 | 51 | 21.2 | 22.2 | – |
Arab parties range from 12 to 14 seats across polls. The Hendel-Zelekha list averages 2.4 seats but shows 4 seats in the Channel 16 poll.
Official Statements & Responses
The Justice Ministry’s Pardons Department has recommended not granting a pardon to Netanyahu, finding his application does not meet statutory requirements. He also condemned former party defectors Idit Silman and Amichai Chikli as “despicable.”
Criticism & Opposition
Eisenkot calls for resignations of lawmakers who switched parties while retaining their seats, framing the moves as a breach of parliamentary ethics. Waldman warns the Netanyahu bloc poses a risk to Israel’s democratic stability and economic vitality.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls diverge sharply on the size of the pro-Netanyahu bloc, ranging from 52 seats (Channel 13, 16) to 64 seats (Channel 14). Likud’s projected seat count varies between 18 and 30. No poll shows either side reaching the 61-seat majority needed without Arab party support, leaving coalition-building uncertain.
What’s Next
- September 7, 2026 – Yashar’s candidate list will be presented in Rosh HaAyin.
- October 27, 2026 – Scheduled date for the general election.
President Herzog may intervene if results are inconclusive, while the Pardons Department’s recommendation on Netanyahu’s pardon remains pending. The coming weeks will determine whether the narrowly leading Netanyahu bloc can assemble a governing coalition or if Eisenkot’s opposition bloc will form an alternative government.