Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Slips in Top Farm States as Diesel Prices Surge
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Situation: Diesel Costs and Approval Ratings
Diesel fuel, essential for tractors, harvesters, irrigation pumps and transport trucks, has climbed to a record-high of roughly $6.31 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). The surge follows disruptions to oil shipments in the Middle East linked to the United States’ war in Iran and broader geopolitical pressures from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and trade tensions.
Former President Donald Trump’s approval rating is negative in all of the nation’s ten largest agricultural-revenue states except Kansas, where a narrow lead remains. The Civiqs poll shows a national rating of –26 points, with 60 % disapproving and 34 % approving. In the key farm states, approval ranges from a low of 24 % in California to a high of 47 % in Kansas, while disapproval exceeds 55 % in most states.
Background: Fuel Market Disruptions and Farm Economics
Diesel’s centrality to modern farming means price spikes translate directly into higher operating costs. Professor Andrew Muhammad of the University of Tennessee notes that the entire farm-machinery cycle—from planting to harvest—depends on diesel and that rising fuel costs compound other input pressures, including fertilizer prices driven by the Ukraine conflict.
Data Overview: Diesel Prices and Approval Numbers
| State (2022 Census ranking) | Diesel price* | Trump approval (Civiqs) |
|---|---|---|
| California | $6.31/gal | 24 % approve, 71 % disapprove |
| Iowa | $6.31/gal | –20 % net (35 % approve, 55 % disapprove) |
| Texas | $6.31/gal | –18 % net (38 % approve, 56 % disapprove) |
| Nebraska | $6.31/gal | –5 % net (43 % approve, 48 % disapprove) |
| Minnesota | $6.31/gal | –35 % net (28 % approve, 63 % disapprove) |
| Illinois | $6.31/gal | –37 % net (29 % approve, 66 % disapprove) |
| Kansas | $6.31/gal | 47 % approve, 44 % disapprove |
| North Carolina | $6.31/gal | –18 % net |
| Indiana | $6.31/gal | –6 % net (43 % approve, 49 % disapprove) |
| Wisconsin | $6.31/gal | –19 % net (38 % approve, 57 % disapprove) |
\*All states are experiencing the same national diesel price level reported by AAA.
Official Responses
The White House did not comment before publication. Civiqs notes its survey includes more than 130,000 respondents nationwide and updates state metrics weekly.
Farmer Concerns and Criticism
Jason Kurtz, a farmer who supported Trump in 2024, says the record diesel costs force him to cut expenses just to complete harvest, threatening profitability for the next planting season. Professor Muhammad adds that higher diesel costs raise transportation expenses for imported inputs such as fertilizer, further squeezing farm margins.
Electoral Implications
Farmers are a core segment of the Republican base that helped elect Trump in 2016 and 2024. Persistent diesel-price pressure creates a political risk for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms, especially in swing farm states such as Iowa, Texas, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Democrats are highlighting the diesel issue alongside trade and foreign-policy concerns. While voter loyalty may not automatically shift, the combination of economic strain and negative approval ratings could make traditionally Republican farm counties more contestable.
Outlook
If diesel prices stay elevated, farmers may face continued profitability challenges, potentially influencing production decisions and voting behavior. Monitoring fuel-market developments and any policy responses will be essential for understanding how economic pressure translates into electoral outcomes in the nation’s most agriculturally significant states.