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Texas Senate Poll Shows Talarico Leading Paxton 47%-46%

By Drooid · Sep 18, 2026, 2:53 AM UTC · How we work

Summary

Talarico Leads Poll

Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in the latest Texas Senate poll.
A Hill/Emerson poll (Sept 12-14) gave Talarico 47% and Paxton 46%.
Paxton faces a 2023 impeachment, a 2025 $6.6 million whistleblower judgment, and past fraud charges.
GOP ads spotlight Talarico’s 2021 ‘God is nonbinary’ comment.
Texans must register by Oct. 5; early voting runs Oct. 19-30 before the Nov. 3 election.

Summary

Abbott Leads Race

The Cook Political Report reclassified the Texas governor race as ‘Likely Republican’ on Aug 20.
Governor Greg Abbott’s campaign account held about twenty times more cash than State lawmaker Gina Hinojosa’s by mid-July.
If elected, State lawmaker Gina Hinojosa would become the first Democrat to win the Texas governorship.
A Southern California poll showed Abbott leads white voters by 34 percentage points.
Republican strategist Anthony Holm called Hinojosa’s bid wholly unrealistic.

History

Historical Context

In the 1994 Republican Revolution, Texas voters elected Republican George W. Bush as governor and gave the GOP a net gain of two state-House seats, ending decades of Democratic dominance. That shift also saw Kay Bailey Hutchison win the first full Republican Senate term in the state. The 2024 Senate contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton echoes those 1994 realignments.

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Talarico Leads Poll

Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in the latest Texas Senate poll.
A Hill/Emerson poll (Sept 12-14) gave Talarico 47% and Paxton 46%.
Paxton faces a 2023 impeachment, a 2025 $6.6 million whistleblower judgment, and past fraud charges.
GOP ads spotlight Talarico’s 2021 ‘God is nonbinary’ comment.
Texans must register by Oct. 5; early voting runs Oct. 19-30 before the Nov. 3 election.

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