Full Breakdown
Russia Holds First Wartime State Duma Election
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
From September 18-20 2026 Russians voted in a three-day parliamentary election for the 450-member State Duma. The ballot was opened in the Far East, spread across the country and, for the first time, included residents of the four Ukrainian regions annexed after the 2022 invasion as well as Crimea. Electronic voting was offered, and the Kremlin projects United Russia will retain its constitutional super-majority (at least 300 seats). Official results are scheduled for September 22.
Background & Context
This is the first Duma election since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. The 2021 election was the last held before the war; since then the political system has eliminated most dissent, forced anti-government media abroad, and expelled leading opposition figures. The liberal Yabloko party – the only registered anti-war force – was barred from the party-list ballot in August after a Supreme Court ruling prompted by the nationalist Motherland party. The remaining parties (Communist Party, Liberal Democratic Party, A Just Russia, New People) are classified as “systemic opposition” because they vote in line with United Russia on key issues.
Data & Statistics
- United Russia holds 310 seats in the current Duma and needs 300 to keep its super-majority.
- Polls cited by analysts give United Russia roughly 37 % support, the Communist Party about 11.6 %, and the “systemic opposition” the remainder.
- The independent Levada Center recorded President Vladimir Putin’s approval at 76 % in August 2025, down from 87 % a year earlier.
- Western estimates place Russian military casualties at more than 1.5 million soldiers killed or wounded.
Official Statements & Responses
In response to speculation about a new mobilization, Putin asserted that “as of today there is no scenario that would require mobilization.”
Criticism & Opposition
- Sergei Guriev, dean of the London Business School, warned that “it is becoming a consensus and overall feeling in Russian society that the war is costly, to the extent that even members of Putin’s elite start talking about the need to bring it to a close.”
On-the-Ground Reports
Campaign activity has been minimal: posters are scarce, televised debates half-empty, and many candidates skipped forums. Observers note a handful of activists handing out leaflets, while ordinary voters line up at gas stations for hours, reflecting war-induced anxiety and a subdued electoral atmosphere. Young men such as Dmitry, who fled to Yerevan, cite fears of a post-election mobilization as a primary motive for leaving the country.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- United Russia’s internal targets suggest higher popularity than the 37 % shown in independent polling.
- Casualty numbers are unverified inside Russia; the only figure available comes from “Western estimates.”
- No independent election monitors (e.g., OSCE, Golos) were present, leaving turnout data unconfirmed.
What’s Next
The Central Election Commission will publish the final composition of the Duma by September 22. The new legislature will serve a five-year term, overlapping the 2030 presidential election in which Putin could seek a sixth term. Analysts warn that a compliant Duma could enable the Kremlin to pursue a post-election mobilization despite official denials, while opposition figures in exile continue to call for a boycott and for international non-recognition of the vote.