Full Breakdown
Russia expands use of repurposed training missiles in Ukraine’s air campaign
By Drooid · · How we work
Surge in RM48U deployments
On September 18 2026 a railway platform in the Brovary district outside Kyiv was struck, killing eight civilians. Ukrainian investigators identified the weapon as an RM48U – a missile originally designed for air-defence training that has been repurposed for combat. Russia’s defence ministry denied intentionally targeting civilians and said the attack was aimed at a logistics centre storing drone components, a claim it made on August 5 2026.
Why a training missile is now a frontline weapon
The RM48U (“raketa mishen”) can be launched from S-400 systems. Ukrainian officials say it follows a ballistic trajectory at high speed but is less accurate than the Iskander short-range ballistic missile, deviating from its intended point by roughly 300 metres on average. By fielding RM48Us, Moscow can preserve its limited stocks of precision missiles for later phases of the war.
Scale of the deployment
- In July and early August, RM48Us accounted for more than half of the 228 ballistic and hypersonic missiles fired at Ukraine, according to the General Prosecutor’s Office.
- Of the 158 confirmed strikes in July, 87 used RM48Us; in the first eight days of August, 36 of 70 strikes were RM48Us.
- The Institute for the Study of War estimates Russia holds about 400 RM48Us compared with roughly 100 operational Iskanders.
- GUR says production is slated to rise to 480 units this year, up from 200 last year.
Official statements and responses
- Russian defence ministry (August 5 2026): the missile strike hit a logistics centre in Brovary; the ministry denied any intention to harm civilians.
- Ukrainian prosecutors and GUR: the RM48U’s lower precision contributed to civilian casualties, including the railway platform attack.
- Senior US administration official (August): the United States possesses sufficient Patriot munitions but must prioritize protection of its own critical systems and expand production.
Analysis and criticism
Sidharth Kaushal, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, argues that the mass use of RM48Us allows Russia to “husband” its more capable missiles for a winter-time ballistic campaign while draining Ukrainian interceptor stocks. He characterises the strategy as a way to attack lower-value targets without expending precision weapons.
Conflicting reports and gaps
- Attribution: Ukrainian prosecutors and GUR attribute the railway strike to an RM48U; Reuters was unable to independently verify those findings.
- Casualty counts: Ukrainian data list eight deaths on September 18 2026; United Nations figures cite 437 civilian deaths in July but do not break down how many resulted specifically from RM48U strikes.
What’s next
Ukraine continues to request additional Patriot interceptors from the United States and its allies, noting that current supplies are insufficient to counter the growing volume of Russian ballistic missiles, including RM48Us. The GUR’s production target of 480 RM48Us this year suggests the missile will remain a central element of Russia’s aerial onslaught in the coming months.