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Israeli Poll Gauges Public Stance on Saudi Aid and Projects Election Outcomes
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Public Opinion on Saudi Assistance
A recent Maariv poll found that 54 % of Israelis think Israel should help Saudi Arabia combat the Houthis, the Iran-backed Yemeni militia. Of those, 38 % say assistance should be tied to a normalization deal with Riyadh, while 16 % support aid even without an immediate diplomatic return. Opposition to any assistance stood at 26 %, and 20 % of respondents were undecided.
Election Seat Projections
Two separate polls released in September projected the composition of the 120-seat Knesset for the election scheduled for October 27. The Maariv poll projected the Netanyahu-aligned bloc at 54 seats, with Likud holding 18 seats, while the Gadi Eisenkot-led Yashar party was projected to win 22 seats. The Channel 13 poll gave the Netanyahu bloc 54 seats and the Eisenkot bloc 52 seats, also assigning Likud 18 seats and Yashar 22 seats. Smaller parties such as the Religious Zionist Party, Am Yisrael, and the Joint List were each projected to secure between six and eight seats, and Arab parties together were projected to hold 14 seats.
Poll Methodology and Sample
The Maariv poll surveyed a nationally representative sample of Israeli adults, while the Channel 13 poll was conducted by HaMadad in cooperation with Stat-Net, HaMidgam Project, and Askaria. The Channel 13 poll interviewed 886 respondents and reported a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points. Both polls used the standard 3.25 % electoral threshold to determine which parties would enter the Knesset.
Implications for the Upcoming Election
The data suggest a modest decline for Likud, now projected at its lowest recent seat count, while Eisenkot’s Yashar party appears poised to become the largest single party. Public willingness to condition Saudi assistance on a normalization agreement may influence coalition negotiations, especially as the Netanyahu bloc seeks to retain a governing majority. The upcoming October 27 election will test whether these poll trends translate into actual voter behavior.