Story perspectives

JPMorgan Drops Oil Market Baseline Amid Iran War

By Drooid · Sep 18, 2026, 3:24 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Story summary

JPMorgan Chase says it no longer has a baseline view for oil markets amid the Iran war.
Brent crude trades near $105 a barrel while JPMorgan estimates fair value around $90 for September.
Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline after a drone attack, removing a 7 million-bpd overland bypass.
Houthi forces expanded control in the Red Sea, threatening tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

History

Historical Context

In August 1990 Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait triggered a nine-month oil shock, sending Brent from $17 in July to $46 per barrel by mid-October while Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait cut 2 million barrels and the UN imposed sanctions on Iraq. Houthi attacks on Saudi’s East-West pipeline and Red Sea shipping echo that disruption, reviving fears of a new Brent surge.

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Story summary

JPMorgan Chase says it no longer has a baseline view for oil markets amid the Iran war.
Brent crude trades near $105 a barrel while JPMorgan estimates fair value around $90 for September.
Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline after a drone attack, removing a 7 million-bpd overland bypass.
Houthi forces expanded control in the Red Sea, threatening tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

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