Full Breakdown
Berlin’s Housing Crisis Drives a Tightly Contested State Election
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event – September 20 State Election
On September 20 Berliners will vote for a new state parliament that will decide the city’s next mayor and coalition. The contest pits the Left Party, the CDU, and the AfD in a three-way race, with the Greens and SPD also in the mix. Housing affordability and the future of the former Tempelhof airport site dominate campaign discourse.
Background & Context
Berlin’s housing market is under pressure: 85 % of households rent, advertised rents have nearly doubled since 2014, and the city projects a need for 211,000 additional homes by 2040. The former Tempelhof airfield, turned public park in 2010, is a flashpoint. A 2014 referendum kept most of the 386-hectare site free of development, but developers now argue that building on parts of the field could alleviate the shortage.
Data & Statistics
Official Statements & Responses
- Left Party: Proposes a one-year rent freeze, limits rent increases to 1 %, forces reductions for rents 20 % above the local average, curtails holiday rentals, and prioritises vacant flats for social-housing applicants.
- CDU: Lead candidate Stefan Evers argues the 2014 referendum occurred under a different housing need, emphasizing limited development on Tempelhof to address the shortage.
- AfD: Links the housing crisis to immigration and calls for stricter migration controls.
- SPD, Greens, Left: Oppose any construction on Tempelhof, favouring alternative sites.
- Mayor’s office: Incumbent CDU mayor Kai Wegner withdrew as lead candidate after criticism over a January power outage; Finance Minister Stefan Evers now leads the CDU campaign.
Criticism & Opposition
Political scientist Julia Reuschenbach (Hamburg University) notes that German politics is becoming more radical and questions whether centrist parties are offering concrete solutions. She suggests the Left’s “maximalist” proposals have made it the most credible opposition to the AfD in Berlin.
On-the-Ground Reports
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Party positions diverge on Tempelhof’s future: the CDU and FDP support limited development, while the SPD, Greens, and Left oppose any construction. No consensus exists on alternative sites for the needed housing units.
Why It Matters / Impact
The election will shape Berlin’s approach to its housing shortage and determine whether the CDU can retain influence in the capital—a factor that could affect Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s national standing after recent AfD gains in Saxony-Anhalt. Mainstream parties have ruled out cooperation with the AfD, limiting governing configurations.
What’s Next
- September 20: Voters decide the composition of the state parliament and the mayoral candidate.
- Post-election: Coalition talks will begin, with the winning bloc setting housing policy and Tempelhof’s fate.
- National implications: Results will feed into broader assessments of Merz’s coalition performance ahead of upcoming state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.