Texas GOP Faces Potential Generational Loss as New Polls Show Democrats Competitive in Key Races

Two September surveys show Democrats leading or within a point of Republican incumbents in Texas’s top statewide contests. The Siena College/ReconMR poll (Sept 8-11, 614 likely voters) puts Democrat James Talarico ahead of Attorney General Ken Paxton 49 % to 43 % and Gina Hinojosa ahead of Gov. Greg Abbott 49 % to 45 %. It also shows Vikki Goodwin ahead of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick 47 % to 46 % and Mayes Middleton edging Nathan Johnson 45 % to 44 %. Among independents, Hinojosa leads Abbott 65 % to 27 % and Talarico leads Paxton 64 % to 24 %.

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The Emerson College/Nexstar poll (Sept 12-14, 1,000 likely voters) finds a tighter Senate race: Talarico 47 %, Paxton 46 %; Abbott 49 %, Hinojosa 46 %. The generic congressional ballot is narrowly Republican, 47 % to 46 %.

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The polling surge follows a Dallas midterm convention that sparked a public feud over the party’s identity. Railroad Commission nominee Bo French posted a photo of South Asian students celebrating a football win with captions suggesting “Texans” were being displaced. Senator John Cornell condemned the remarks as “bigotry,” while Gov. Abbott said the message “is not my message.”

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Strategist Karl Rove announced he would vote for Democrat Jon Rosenthal, labeling French a “bigot.” Former President Donald Trump rebuked Rove, calling him “bad” for Republicans.

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• Siena/ReconMR margin of error: ±4.3 pp.

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• Emerson credibility interval: ±3 pp.

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• Favorability (Emerson): Talarico 48 % favorable / 42 % unfavorable; Paxton 40 % favorable / 48 % unfavorable; Abbott 46 % favorable / 47 % unfavorable; Hinojosa 48 % favorable / 27 % unfavorable.

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• Issue priorities (Emerson): Economy 36 %, immigration 14 %, education 12 %, health care 11 %, threats to democracy 11 %.

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• Policy perception (ReconMR): 51 % say Hinojosa would make prices more affordable vs. 44 % for Abbott; 53 % say Abbott would better secure the border vs. 39 % for Hinojosa.

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Cornell posted on X, “the Republican Party is better than this,” condemning the French controversy.

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Sid Miller, Texas Agriculture Commissioner, warned that rapid data-center expansion could generate backlash harming statewide Republican prospects.

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Rove’s decision to cast a Democratic ballot and his criticism of French sparked a sharp response from Trump, who labeled Rove “bad” for Republicans.

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At the Dallas convention, a handful of Republicans expressed doubts about a Trump-centered strategy, arguing it might alienate independents and Hispanic voters.

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The two surveys differ on the Senate race gap: Siena/ReconMR shows a six-point lead for Talarico, while Emerson’s fieldwork shows a one-point margin. Both note similar favorability splits. No definitive data exist on how independent voter sentiment will translate into turnout, leaving a key uncertainty.

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• “The Republican Party is better than this,” — Senator Cornell

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The November 2024 election will test whether Democrats can turn these leads into statewide victories. Both parties are expected to intensify outreach to independents and Hispanic voters while navigating internal disputes over messaging, data-center policy, and party identity.

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