Full Breakdown
UN Security Council Straw Poll Highlights Tight Race for Next Secretary-General
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Third Informal Straw Poll Shows Rebeca Grynspan Leading
On September 18, 2026 the United Nations Security Council held its third informal “straw poll” on candidates to succeed António Guterres. Former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan received nine “encourage” votes, five “discourage” votes and one “no opinion,” ahead of Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, who earned eight “encourage,” six “discourage” and one “no opinion.” The poll is non-binding but signals which contenders remain viable before the Council formally recommends a name to the General Assembly.
Background & Context: How the UN Picks Its Secretary-General
Under Article 97 of the UN Charter, the Secretary-General is appointed by the General Assembly after a Security Council recommendation. In practice the five permanent members (U.S., China, Russia, France, U.K.) can veto any candidate. A candidate must secure at least nine of the 15 Council votes and avoid a P5 veto. Informal straw polls, introduced in 2016, let members signal “encourage,” “discourage,” or “no opinion” without naming candidates on the ballot.
Key Figures & Groups
- Rebeca Grynspan – former Vice President of Costa Rica; secretary-general of UNCTAD.
- Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett – Guyana’s permanent representative to the UN.
- Rafael Grossi – director-general of the IAEA; Argentina’s candidate.
- Olara Otunnu – former UN under-secretary-general; Uganda’s candidate.
- Macky Sall – former President of Senegal; West African candidate.
- María Fernanda Espinosa – former Ecuadorian foreign minister and UNGA President.
- Michelle Bachelet – former President of Chile and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.
- Ivonne Baki – Ecuadorian diplomat and former ambassador.
Timeline of Straw Polls
- July 30, 2026 – First informal poll.
- August 21, 2026 – Second poll.
- September 18, 2026 – Third poll.
Data & Statistics: Vote Tallies
- Rebeca Grynspan: 9 encourage, 5 discourage, 1 no opinion.
- Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett: 8 encourage, 6 discourage, 1 no opinion.
- Rafael Grossi: 5 encourage, 8 discourage, 2 no opinion.
- Olara Otunnu: 5 encourage, 7 discourage, 3 no opinion.
- Macky Sall: 5 encourage, 9 discourage, 1 no opinion.
- María Fernanda Espinosa: 3 encourage, 6 discourage, 6 no opinion.
- Michelle Bachelet: 1 encourage, 11 discourage, 3 no opinion.
- Ivonne Baki: 0 encourage, 10 discourage, 5 no opinion.
Official Statements & Responses
Daniel Forti, head of UN affairs at the International Crisis Group, warned that the next round will reveal whether either frontrunner can reach the required nine votes and avoid a veto. Richard Gowan, director of global issues at the same group, said the tallies could encourage additional candidates to enter the race.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I believe in a number of fundamental things that need to be done, and need to happen for the world to be better — and I’m determined to fight to make those things happen,” — António Guterres.
- “The race now has two clear frontrunners: Grynspan and Rodrigues-Birkett. But neither has locked down enough Council support to escape the spectre of a possible P5 veto,” — Daniel Forti.
What’s Next: Upcoming General Assembly Decision
The Security Council will continue informal polling until a candidate secures nine votes without a P5 veto. The Council will then forward its recommendation to the General Assembly, expected to convene its 81st session in late September 2026 to appoint the next Secretary-General.