Full Breakdown
One Nation Challenges Nationals in Murray Plains Ahead of the 2026 Victorian Election
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Tight Race for the Murray Plains State Seat
The Murray Plains electorate in northern Victoria—spanning more than 200 km along the Murray River from Swan Hill to Echuca and Kyabram—will hold a contest in the November 2026 state election after the incumbent National member retires after 24 years. One Nation is fielding Gannawarra Shire mayor Garner Smith, while the National Party has nominated former Victorian Farmers Federation president Brett Hosking. The race has drawn local attention amid debates over renewable-energy projects, a controversial emergency-services tax, and voter fatigue with the major parties.
Background & Context
Kerang, the largest town in the seat, has about 4,000 residents and has seen agriculture and food-manufacturing jobs decline following federal water-reform measures. The area now hosts several solar, wind and battery projects, including the VNI West transmission line that will cross private farms. Both One Nation and the Coalition have pledged to scrap VNI West if elected, a stance welcomed by the Victorian Farmers Federation but criticised by the Clean Energy Council and Environment Victoria as a risk to energy security and household electricity costs.
A higher tax to fund emergency services, introduced by the Labor government, sparked a large protest outside Melbourne Parliament in May 2025, with many Country Fire Authority volunteers and farmers participating.
Key Figures & Groups
- Garner Smith – Mayor of Gannawarra Shire, One Nation candidate; former National Party electorate officer.
- Brett Hosking – Former president of the Victorian Farmers Federation, National Party candidate; fifth-generation mixed farmer from Quambatook.
- Darren Connelly – 60-year-old earthmoving operator and first-time One Nation supporter from Kerang.
- Ash and Bec Marshall – Grain growers confronting nearby wind-farm proposals.
Data & Statistics
- Population of Kerang: ~4,000.
- Length of the Murray Plains electorate: >200 km.
Official Statements & Responses
Brett Hosking told local media that he does not view Murray Plains as a safe National seat, saying he must “earn” the electorate’s support and promising to fight for rural communities. He cautioned against extrapolating from the 2022 Farrer by-election, noting that dynamics will shift in a general election.
Councilor Garner Smith announced at a council meeting that he will step aside as mayor on September 30 and suspend his council allowance, remaining a councillor to avoid leaving the council “unacceptably thin.”
Criticism & Opposition
The Clean Energy Council and Environment Victoria have criticised the joint pledge to scrap VNI West, arguing it would jeopardise energy security and raise power bills.
Garner Smith faced a council-arbiter-ordered apology in 2022 after posting misogynistic comments on Facebook about a leaked video involving former AFL player Dustin Martin.
On-the-Ground Reports
Darren Connelly expressed frustration with “shiny arse-polish” professional politicians and said he would vote for One Nation even if the candidate were a blue heeler, calling for the removal of bureaucracy.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We have a plan to make sure communities are supported, rural Victoria is supported, and I will fight hard for that.” — Mr Hosking
- “It's actually really confronting. It's probably the biggest change since clearing of land for agricultural use,” — Mr Marshall
What’s Next
The Murray Plains seat will be contested in the November 2026 state election. Garner Smith’s resignation as mayor on September 30 will take effect before the campaign intensifies. Voters will decide whether One Nation can convert local discontent into a seat win, while the Nationals aim to retain a historically stronghold.