Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Rating Hits New Lows Ahead of 2026 Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Declining Approval in Recent Polls
- Marquette Law School poll (Sept 2-9, 2026): 37 % approve, 63 % disapprove, net -26.
- Economist YouGov tracker (Sept 15, 2026): 35 % approve, 60 % disapprove, net -25.
- Reuters/Ipsos poll (Sept 14, 2026): 35 % approve, a two-point rise from the prior week.
- Civiqs state data: negative ratings in five of eight targeted states, from -26 in Texas to -11 in Missouri.
- “Very conservative” respondents: approval fell from 84 % (July) to 76 % (Sept); disapproval rose from 16 % to 24 %.
Background & Context
Since taking office in January 2025, Trump’s overall approval has slipped from the mid-40s to the low-30s. Economic concerns—inflation, gasoline prices, and the Iran war—are cited as primary drivers. A trade dispute with Canada, highlighted by Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s tariff threats, coincided with further declines in the affected states.
Data & Statistics
- Overall approval: 37 % (Marquette), 35 % (Reuters/Ipsos), 34 % (Economist).
- Net rating: -26 (Marquette), -25 (Economist).
- Issue-specific approval: inflation 19 %, gasoline 20 %, economy 28 %, Iran war 26 %, border security mid-40s.
- Very conservative subgroup: approval dropped 8 points (84 % -> 76 %); net approval fell from +68 to +52.
- State shifts (Civiqs): Texas -26, Wisconsin -19, Florida -14, Iowa -12 (improvement), Missouri -11.
Criticism & Opposition
- Costas Panagopoulos, Northeastern University professor, noted the movement should be interpreted “cautiously,” adding that “even highly supportive voters can become less approving when they are dissatisfied with specific outcomes.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Net approval varies by 1-2 points across the three polls.
- State-level Civiqs figures show mixed trends, with some states improving while others worsen.
- The very-conservative subgroup sample (110 respondents) carries a larger margin of error, limiting confidence in the exact shift magnitude.
- No longitudinal data directly links the Canada tariff dispute to the approval declines; the correlation remains unproven.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Polls serve as a snapshot in time, not a crystal ball, and Newsweek’s attempt to cherry-pick data to manufacture Republican collapse is lazy spin,” — Natalie Baldassarre, RNC press secretary
- “On the congressional ballot, we see the largest advantage for Democrats that we’ve ever seen,” — Charles Franklin, poll director
What’s Next
The November 2026 midterms will reveal whether the Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot (13 % among likely voters in the Marquette poll) translates into seat gains. No further polling releases are scheduled beyond the September 29 tariff-ban implementation date.