Full Breakdown
Record-High Support for Re-joining the EU Amid Growing Economic Concerns
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Overview of the Shift in Public Opinion
Commentators note that public sentiment on EU membership has moved sharply since the 2016 referendum. Sir John told *The Independent* that 61 % of Britons now say they would vote to re-join the European Union, while 39 % would stay out. Sir John also points out that, apart from the Greens and nationalist parties, political leaders have offered little encouragement for re-entry.
Economic Impact Estimates
Multiple independent analyses quantify the economic cost of Brexit. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates a long-term loss of about 4 % of UK economic output. In February 2024, economists at Goldman Sachs concluded that the UK’s output had fallen short of comparable countries by around 5 % since the referendum. A working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) projects that by 2025 Brexit will have reduced UK GDP by 6 % to 8 %, based on macro-data simulations and micro-survey data.
Official Statements & Responses
He warns that the framing of any future referendum will be decisive and notes that Prime Minister Andy Burnham will have to “sell” a post-Brexit reset with Europe. Sir John also observes Labour’s recent steps, such as re-joining the Erasmus+ exchange scheme, as a modest move toward a friendlier EU stance.
Verbatim Quotes
- “That is the highest figure that it has been, as an average over any extended period of time, all the way back to 2016.” — Sir John
- “Public opinion has shifted quite considerably, partly for demographic reasons, even though prior to 2024, apart from the Greens and the nationalists, nobody was arguing in favour of rejoining.” — Sir John
Why It Matters
Re-joining the EU single market could deliver a “huge boost” to the UK economy, offsetting a portion of the 4-8 % output loss identified by the OBR, Goldman Sachs, and NBER. However, Sir John cautions that despite the record-high 61 % support, the path to a referendum and possible re-entry is likely to be “long and winding”, with political framing and public persuasion remaining critical hurdles.