Full Breakdown
Tropical Depression Six Forms Amid an Unusually Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Core Event: Formation and Immediate Characteristics
On September 19, 2026, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its first advisory on Tropical Depression Six. The system was located about 525 mi (845 km) southwest of the Azores, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h) and gusts higher. The depression was moving north at roughly 2 mph (4 km/h) and had a minimum central pressure of 1009 mb (29.80 in). No coastal watches or warnings were in effect, and the NHC indicated no hazards to land.
Background & Context: El Niño and Seasonal Activity
Meteorologists have linked the current lack of Atlantic hurricanes to ongoing El Niño conditions. The season has produced only five named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard—and no hurricanes, a record for the modern satellite era (since 1966). Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the Atlantic stands at 4.4, 94 % below normal. The strongest Atlantic systems to date have been Bertha and Edouard, each reaching 60 mph (95 km/h).
“El Niño conditions are associated with fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, especially in the Western Atlantic Ocean Basin,” — Matthew Rosencrans
Data & Statistics
- Location: 32.6° N, 33.6° W, 525 mi (845 km) SW of the Azores.
- Winds: 35 mph sustained, higher gusts.
- Movement: northward at 2 mph; forecast to turn northeast then southwest.
- Pressure: 1009 mb (29.80 in).
- Season totals (as of mid-September): 5 named storms, 0 hurricanes, ACE 4.4 (94 % below normal).
- Historical note: this is the latest date in the modern era without a hurricane; only 1907 and 1914 are comparable, though pre-satellite records are uncertain.
Official Statements & Responses
The center expects the system to generally move northeast for the next 24–36 hours before curving southwest in a couple of days, remaining over open water throughout.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Forecast guidance diverges on the system’s longevity. The European model projects Tropical Depression Six persisting for about five days, while the U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) suggests dissipation by mid-week. Both models agree the storm will stay over the open Atlantic, but the exact timing of weakening remains uncertain.
What’s Next
Forecasters anticipate the depression may briefly reach tropical-storm strength and be named Fay. Some guidance expects the system to become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 hours after formation and to dissipate roughly 120 hours later. The Atlantic hurricane season continues through November 30, and officials note that tropical activity could still emerge later in the month despite the current lull.
Verbatim Quotes
- “El Niño conditions are associated with fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, especially in the Western Atlantic Ocean Basin,” — Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA lead for the seasonal hurricane outlook.