Full Breakdown
Southwest Monsoon Begins Withdrawal, Deepening Rainfall Deficits Across India
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Monsoon Withdrawal Commences in Northwest India
On September 19 the southwest (summer) monsoon started withdrawing from west Rajasthan, moving eastward through Ramgarh, Mohangarh, Phalodi and Khajuwala. The India Meteorological Department (India Meteorological Department’s (IMD)) notes that this is a few days later than the normal withdrawal date of September 17. The retreat is expected to spread over the next three to four days to additional parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Saurashtra and Kachchh.
Background & Context
The monsoon season, which normally runs from early June to mid-October, supplies the bulk of India’s annual rainfall. A low-pressure area forming over the Andaman Sea around September 19 is projected to develop into a cyclonic storm moving toward the Odisha-Andhra Pradesh coast. Such systems can temporarily sustain rainfall in central and eastern India even as the monsoon withdraws from the northwest.
Data & Statistics
- Cumulative rainfall from June 1 to September 19 shows a nationwide deficit of 15 % relative to the long-term average (IMD).
- Kerala has recorded only 1,380.3 mm of rain against a normal 1,908.5 mm, a shortfall of 28 % as of September 17.
- Within Kerala, Idukki and Wayanad report deficits of 47 % and 54 %, respectively, affecting major hydro-electric reservoirs.
- Six of Kerala’s districts have received normal rainfall; the remaining districts face significant deficits.
- The overall national deficit is projected to exceed 10 % by the season’s end on September 30, a level classified as drought.
Impact on Agriculture and Power Supply
Despite a modest decline of just over 1 % in total kharif sown area, water-intensive paddy cultivation is down nearly 4 % compared with the previous year. Regional timing variations and reduced moisture may threaten yields and the upcoming rabi season. In Kerala, the shortfalls in Idukki and Wayanad jeopardize hydro-electric generation, compounding an existing severe power crisis.
Official Statements & Responses
- Neetha K.
- The IMD also outlined the criteria for declaring the first withdrawal: cessation of rain for five consecutive days, the onset of dry air, and the establishment of a high-pressure system, all of which were met after September 1.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the exact timing of the withdrawal’s onset. While the IMD bulletin cites September 19 as the date conditions became favourable, the traditional normal date is September 17. Some reports describe the withdrawal as having already begun on September 19, whereas others frame it as a forthcoming event. No source provides definitive data on how the low-pressure system will affect rainfall totals beyond the next week, leaving uncertainty about the final deficit.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Conditions are also favourable for further withdrawal from some more parts of Rajasthan and some parts of Punjab and Saurashtra and Kachchh over the next three-four days,” — the Met department
What’s Next
The monsoon season is scheduled to conclude on September 30, after which the northeast monsoon is expected to begin in Kerala roughly two weeks later. Continued monitoring of the cyclonic system over the Bay of Bengal will determine whether additional rain can mitigate the current deficits before the formal end of the southwest monsoon.