Full Breakdown
German State Elections Put Chancellor Friedrich Merz on a Tightrope
By Drooid · · How we work
Election Stakes for the Chancellor
Voters in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania are heading to the polls this weekend, and the outcomes could determine whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz retains his position after only 16 months in office. Merz’s personal approval rating has sunk to about 10 percent, and he has cancelled a planned speech at the United Nations, citing the need to stay in Berlin for the elections. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU)’s performance in these two states will be a barometer for his authority within the party and may trigger internal moves to replace him before the scheduled national election in 2029.
Party Competition and Campaign Dynamics
In Berlin, the CDU is challenged by the far-left Die Linke, which is campaigning on expropriating corporate landlords to curb soaring rents—nearly double since 2014 in a city where roughly 85 percent of households rent. The AfD remains a strong third-place contender despite the capital’s liberal reputation. The incumbent mayor, Kai Wegner (CDU), withdrew from the race in July after controversy over his conduct during a winter power blackout; finance chief Stefan Evers now leads the CDU ticket but has not lifted poll numbers.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the race is tighter. The AfD and the Social Democratic Party are locked in a neck-and-neck contest, while the CDU risks slipping below the 5 percent threshold that would bar it from the state parliament—a first in post-war German politics. The AfD’s surge in Saxony-Anhalt, where it achieved its highest regional vote share yet fell short of an outright majority, fuels expectations of further gains.
Economic Anxiety as a Driving Force
Analysts link the AfD’s momentum to heightened economic worries. Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank, notes that while some indicators have improved under Merz, rising living costs, deindustrialisation in core sectors such as automotive manufacturing, and a global rise in petrol prices have intensified voter discontent. He estimates the risk of a CDU revolt against the chancellor has risen from roughly 20 percent to about 35 percent in the past ten days.
Potential Political Fallout
If the CDU falls below the 5 percent mark in either state, it would mark an unprecedented setback for the party and could accelerate calls for Merz’s replacement. Even a modest loss could embolden the AfD, which continues to mobilise non-voters and capitalise on concerns over crime, economic insecurity, and opposition to Merz’s strong support for Ukraine.
Outlook
The elections serve as a litmus test for the CDU’s ability to contain the far-right surge and maintain coalition stability. Observers will watch exit polls closely, as the results may set the stage for internal party reshuffling and shape the broader trajectory of German politics ahead of the 2029 federal election.