New Hampshire Senate Race Tightens as Sununu and Pappas Vie for Open Seat

Former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu (R) and U.S. Representative Chris Pappas (D) are competing for the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D). The race has shifted from a “lean Democrat” rating to a “toss-up” in the latest Cook Political Report, making it one of the few Senate contests that could affect control of the 53-47 Republican-held chamber.

Portsmouth Herald

New Hampshire’s recent presidential votes have been narrowly Democratic; President Trump received a 37 % approval rating in the state, and the Granite State voted for Vice President Kamala Harris by three points in 2024. The Sununu family has deep statewide roots, while Pappas touts his local upbringing and ownership of the family-run Puritan Backroom restaurant. National Republican groups have poured money into the race, viewing it as a pickup opportunity, while Democratic operatives stress the need to defend a historically purple seat.

The Hill

• Advertising spend – GOP ads total $6.7 million aired with more than $25 million reserved; Democrats have aired $4.2 million and reserved nearly $15 million.

The Hill

• Fundraising – Pappas’s campaign has raised about $15 million versus Sununu’s $4.1 million.

The Hill

• Polling – A University of New Hampshire poll before the primary showed Sununu leading 45 % to 43 %; the Cook Political Report now lists the race as a toss-up. Other recent surveys place the candidates within each other’s margin of error.

Boston Globe

• External spending – One report cites $45 million in Republican-sourced television and digital ads versus $25 million from Democratic groups, differing from the ad-tracking totals above.

The Hill

Sununu’s campaign argues that his experience in the Senate can “help calm the waters” of a dysfunctional Congress.

The Hill

Democratic super-PAC spokesperson Lauren French highlighted the party’s ad purchases, noting “significant resources committed” to counter Sununu’s lobbying background.

The Hill

Republican strategist Jim Merrill warned that high living costs and an unpopular war could create a “tough environment for Republicans,” suggesting Sununu’s candidacy faces headwinds despite his family brand.

The Hill

Critics of Sununu point to his past lobbying for “price-gouging corporations” and a single appearance of the name “John Sununu” in files related to Jeffrey Epstein, though the context remains unclear.

The Hill

Pappas has faced scrutiny over his partner’s former lobbying work for Amazon; a 2020 House Ethics Committee opinion concluded no disclosure was required, a point the campaign cites in defense.

The Hill

• Advertising totals – Ad-tracking data reports $6.7 million aired by Republicans with $25 million reserved, while a separate analysis cites $45 million in total Republican ad spending.

The Hill

• Poll leads – The University of New Hampshire poll shows Sununu ahead 45-43, whereas other polls place the race within the margin of error or even favor Pappas.

Boston Globe

• Impact of national trends – Sources differ on how President Trump’s low approval in the state will affect Sununu’s prospects; some analysts argue it will “bog down” his candidacy, while others note GOP optimism despite the headwinds.

Boston Globe

The race will be decided on November 3, 2026, when voters cast ballots for the open Senate seat alongside numerous statewide contests. Both campaigns have indicated that advertising will intensify in the weeks leading up to the election, and additional polling is expected as the final stretch approaches.

Forbes