Full Breakdown
Trump’s Plummeting Approval Ratings Threaten GOP Midterm Prospects
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Nationwide Approval Snapshot
- A Civiqs rolling poll shows President Donald Trump at 33 % approval and 61 % disapproval (net -28) twenty months into his second term.
- The Economist’s YouGov-based tracker (updated Sept 15 2026) records a net -25 (35 % approve, 60 % disapprove).
- A Marquette Law School poll (Sept 2-9 2026) finds a net -26 (37 % approve, 63 % disapprove).
- The Rainey Center’s Sept 10-14 2026 survey shows daily AI users at +9 net (54 % approve, 45 % disapprove), while weekly and monthly users remain deeply negative.
Trend Since Inauguration
- On Jan 20 2025, Trump held positive net approval in many states, including Wyoming (+47) and North Dakota (+34).
- By fall 2026, every major swing state—Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin—shows a negative net rating.
- Largest state-level declines: Kentucky (-34 points), Oklahoma (-30), Texas (-25).
- Only nine states still give Trump a positive net rating: Wyoming (+19), North Dakota (+11), West Virginia (+9), Arkansas (+9), Alabama (+5), Idaho (+2), Kansas (+2), Oklahoma (+1), Montana (+1).
Demographic and Issue Breakdown
- Age 18-34: 20 % approve, 72 % disapprove.
- Independents: 26 % approve, 66 % disapprove.
- Women: 29 % approve, 65 % disapprove; men 37 % approve, 55 % disapprove.
- Issue importance (YouGov): inflation/prices top concern for 34 % of Democrats and 35 % of Republicans; immigration ranks highest for Republicans (13 %).
Why It Matters for the 2026 Midterms
- Midterms are traditionally a referendum on the incumbent party. With the election 45 days away, GOP strategists worry Trump’s low ratings could depress base turnout and energize Democrats.
- Nathan Gonzales, editor of *Inside Elections*, warns that “any midterm election with an unpopular president is potentially treacherous for his party.”
- Political scientist Grant Reeher notes that “voting for a Democratic alternative is a higher bar than stating lack of approval,” but persistent disapproval may still affect tight races.
- Economic pressures—high inflation, rising gasoline prices linked to the Iran war, and tariff-induced cost increases—are cited as key drivers of voter dissatisfaction.
Official Statements & Responses
- White House spokesman Davis Ingle frames the Nov 5 2024 election as the “ultimate poll,” arguing that the 80 million-vote mandate supersedes current polling.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Net approval figures differ modestly across sources: Civiqs (-28), *The Economist* (-25), Marquette (-26). All agree the trend is downward.
- State-level data from Civiqs shows Wyoming at +19, a drop from +47 at inauguration; other outlets report only current nets, leaving the size of the decline ambiguous.
- The AI-user poll’s positive net rating (+9) among daily users suggests a niche of support not reflected in broader aggregates.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.” — Davis Ingle, spokesman
- “Any midterm election with an unpopular president is potentially treacherous for his party,” — Nathan Gonzales, editor, *Inside Elections*
- “Voting for a Democratic alternative is a higher bar than stating lack of approval,” — Grant Reeher, political-science professor, Syracuse University
- “This business with prices is just killing the administration,” — Brit Hume, political analyst