Full Breakdown
Russia Holds First Post-Invasion State Duma Election Amid War and International Controversy
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The Election and Its Immediate Parameters
Russia is conducting a parliamentary election for all 450 State Duma seats, the first since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Voting occurs across the Russian Federation and, for the first time, in the Russian-controlled parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which Moscow claims to have annexed. Only parties that support President Vladimir Putin’s war effort are permitted to run; the opposition party Yabloko was removed from the ballot. United Russia, the Kremlin-backed party that already controls more than two-thirds of the Duma, is expected to retain a dominant majority.
Background and Context
Moscow annexed the four Ukrainian regions in September 2022, a move not recognized internationally. Opposition parties critical of the war have been barred, and the election is viewed as a de-facto referendum on the conflict. Public sentiment is strained by rising prices, fuel shortages, internet restrictions and rumors of further mobilization.
Data and Statistics
- More than 110 million Russians are eligible to vote.
- Authorities claim over 3.5 million eligible voters reside in the occupied territories.
- State-run polls project United Russia receiving over 30 % of the vote, enough for about 300 seats.
- The Communist Party is placed at roughly 11 %, Novye Lyudi at 10 %, LDPR at 9 %, and Fair Russia near 5 %.
- Prior to voting, officials reported a drone barrage that killed at least two people.
Official Statements & Responses
- President Putin called on Russians to vote as a contribution to the nation’s victory.
- Mayor Sobyanin said the drone attack was a “clearly planned” attempt to disrupt the elections, but that “the enemy did not succeed.”
- Perzev explained that the Kremlin is trying to hold the election “as inconspicuously as possible” given the socioeconomic crisis.
- Ukrainian officials declared the voting in the annexed regions illegal and urged foreign governments not to recognize the results.
Criticism and Opposition
- Yabloko leader Nikolai Rybakov urged voters to tear up their ballots as a protest.
- The team of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny recommended supporting non-Kremlin candidates.
- Analyst Alexander Kynew highlighted that Novye Lyudi, originally a Kremlin-initiated party, may draw support from former Yabloko voters.
- The international community views elections in occupied Ukrainian territories as a breach of international law.
On-the-Ground Reports
Video from a polling station in occupied Donetsk shows voters casting ballots while an armed Russian soldier stands nearby, illustrating the security environment in the annexed areas.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
What’s Next
The composition of the new State Duma will shape the Kremlin’s capacity to sustain its military campaign and manage the domestic crisis. In addition to the federal election, about 2,200 regional elections are scheduled across eight regions, though timelines for final certification of results have not been detailed.