Germany’s Drive to Re-Become Europe’s Leading Conventional Military Power

Berlin’s April-released defence strategy outlines a plan to more than double the Bundeswehr’s personnel to 460,000 within ten years. The projected defence budget of €152.8 billion by 2029 would surpass the combined spending of the United Kingdom and France. The strategy calls for acquiring F-35 fighter jets, hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles, and modernising Leopard tanks, while Rheinmetall’s new ammunition plant in Lower Saxony now produces more rounds than the United States.

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The shift follows former chancellor Olaf Scholz’s “Zeitenwende” announcement after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. European security specialist Armida van Rij of the Centre for European Reform notes that Germany’s fiscal headroom is unmatched in Europe, allowing it to lead a continent-wide increase in defence investment.

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German officials plan a permanent deployment of thousands of troops to Lithuania to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has advocated this forward-looking posture as part of Germany’s broader role in European security. The government also signals interest in contributing to a European nuclear umbrella, reportedly discussing investment in Britain’s Trident system despite Germany’s non-nuclear status.

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French defence chief General Fabien Mandon warned that Germany’s rapid progress could erode France’s position as the EU’s top military power, arguing that operational experience and cultural factors may no longer favor France within five years. Left-wing politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon labeled the German project “unacceptable for France,” fearing it would bolster domestic firms at the expense of other European manufacturers. Polish security analyst Dr Jakub Bornio highlighted lingering anti-German sentiment rooted in World War II, questioning whether Germany should lead Europe given unresolved historical grievances.

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• “Under these conditions, the German military project to create Europe’s premier conventional army is unacceptable for France,” — Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of France Unbowed

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• “There is huge anti-German resentment that originates in history and mainly World War Two … and there are still some chapters between Poland and Germany that have not been closed,” — Dr Jakub Bornio, security analyst at the Institute of Central Europe

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