Trump’s Approval Ratings and the 2026 Midterm Landscape

President Donald Trump’s second term has been marked by consistently low approval numbers, a factor that analysts say could shape the 2026 congressional midterms. A Civiqs rolling-tracking poll of registered voters shows Trump at 33 % approval and 61 % disapproval, a net rating of –28, and underwater in 41 states, including every major battleground. With roughly six weeks left before Election Day, both parties are gauging how the president’s popularity—or lack thereof—will influence voter turnout and candidate prospects.

Newsweek

Midterm elections traditionally serve as referendums on the party occupying the White House. Republicans hope that issues such as immigration, crime and border security will outweigh voter dissatisfaction with Trump, while Democrats aim to capitalize on economic concerns, inflation and criticism of the administration’s handling of the Iran conflict.

Newsweek

• National polls (selected):

Newsweek

• Marquette Law School – 37 % approve, 63 % disapprove.

Newsweek

• Fox News – 39 % approve.

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• Reuters/Ipsos – 35 % approve.

Newsweek

• State-level net approvals (Civiqs) – only nine states give Trump a positive net rating: Wyoming +19, North Dakota +11, West Virginia +9, Arkansas +9, Alabama +5, Idaho +2, Kansas +2, Oklahoma +1, Montana +1. All major swing states are negative, e.g., Nevada –26, Georgia –24, Pennsylvania –23.

Newsweek

• Demographic breakdown (Civiqs):

Newsweek

• Ages 18-34: 20 % approve, 72 % disapprove.

Newsweek

• Independents: 26 % approve, 66 % disapprove.

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• Women: 29 % approve, 65 % disapprove.

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• Advertising spend (Sept 1-15, 2026) – CNN analysis of AdImpact data:

CNN

• Republican TV ads mentioning Trump: 12 spots, about $1 million of a $160 million total buy.

CNN

• Democratic ads mentioning Trump: 95 spots, about $23 million, roughly one-fifth of Democratic spending.

CNN

• Super-PAC activity – No Going Back PAC, linked to MAGA Inc., has committed over $100 million in fall ad purchases, yet its spots largely avoid naming Trump.

CNN

• Donald Trump urged supporters to act as though he were on the ballot, framing the midterms as a continuation of his agenda.

Newsweek

• Natalie Baldassarre, RNC national press secretary, highlighted Trump’s record on tax cuts, prescription-drug pricing and border security as energizing the Republican base.

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• Democratic advertisers have presented Republican candidates as extensions of Trump’s low-approval record.

CNN

• Nathan Gonzales, editor of *Inside Elections*, warned that “any midterm election with an unpopular president is potentially treacherous for his party.”

Newsweek

• Grant Reeher, political-science professor at Syracuse University, noted that “voting for a Democratic alternative is a higher bar than stating lack of approval.”

Newsweek

Polling on Trump’s approval varies across outlets, leaving uncertainty about the precise level of national disapproval. While Civiqs provides state-level net ratings, the methodology for translating these figures into projected vote margins is not detailed.

Newsweek

• “Any midterm election with an unpopular president is potentially treacherous for his party,” — Nathan Gonzales, *Inside Elections*

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• “Pretend that I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot, just one more time,” — Donald Trump

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• “Voting for a Democratic alternative is a higher bar than stating lack of approval,” — Grant Reeher, Syracuse University

Newsweek

Republican and Democratic campaigns will continue to adjust messaging as the November 2026 midterms approach. Analysts will watch turnout among Trump’s core supporters, independents and younger voters to gauge whether low presidential approval translates into electoral losses for the GOP. The evolving advertising strategies—particularly the limited use of Trump’s image by Republicans—will remain a focal point in the final weeks before Election Day.

CNN