Full Breakdown
Florida Senate Special Election Turns Into a Dead-Heat Race
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Florida Republican Senator Ashley Moody’s campaign sent a “special election alert” to supporters after two recent opinion polls showed the race against Democrat Angie Nixon as essentially tied. The St. Pete Polls survey of 913 likely voters, conducted from September 15 to 17, gave Moody 45.2 % and Nixon 44.8 % of the vote—within the poll’s ±3.2 percentage-point margin of error. A separate Change Research poll of 1,107 likely voters, fielded between September 7 and 9, reported both candidates at 47 % each, with a ±2.8 percentage-point error margin. An earlier Quantus Insights poll (conducted September 8-10) placed Moody ahead 50 % to 43 %.
Background & Context
Moody, a Trump-backed former state attorney general, was appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis in January 2025 to fill the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, who left for the secretary-of-state post. Nixon, a progressive state representative, secured the Democratic nomination by defeating retired Army lieutenant colonel Alexander Vindman in the primary held on August 18. Florida’s voter registration advantage favors Republicans by roughly 1.5 million voters, and Donald Trump won the state by 13 points in 2024. Historically, no Democrat has won a statewide race in Florida since 2018.
Poll Data & Statistics
- St. Pete Polls: Moody 45.2 % vs. Nixon 44.8 % (±3.2 pp).
- Change Research: Moody 47 % vs. Nixon 47 % (±2.8 pp).
- Quantus Insights: Moody 50 % vs. Nixon 43 % (±4.1 pp).
- RealClearPolling average (recent surveys): Moody 48.3 % vs. Nixon 43.3 %.
- Decision Desk HQ analysis: 78 % probability of victory for Moody.
- Kalshi prediction markets (cited by The Daily Beast): 95 % chance of Moody winning.
Official Statements & Responses
Newsweek reported that both campaigns were contacted for comment via online inquiry forms and email outside regular office hours; no responses were received at the time of reporting.
Verbatim Quotes
“It turns out that nominating a self-described democratic socialist in a state like Florida, where there are a lot of Cuban refugees, is not necessarily the smartest idea,” — Harry Enten — Harry Enten