Full Breakdown
Merz Vows to Remain Chancellor Amid CDU Setbacks in Two State Elections
By Drooid · · How we work
Election Night Results
Exit-poll data released after polls closed at 18:00 showed the Alternative for Germany (AfD) projected to win Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with roughly 37-38 % of the vote, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) close behind at about 36 %, and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) just clearing the 5 % threshold. In Berlin, Die Linke led with approximately 24-26 %, ahead of the CDU at about 20 % and the Greens, while the AfD was projected around 16 % (public broadcasters ZDF and ARD).
Background & Context
The September 6 state election in Saxony-Anhalt had already delivered a historic surge for the AfD, which captured 44 % of the vote and narrowly missed an absolute majority. That result intensified scrutiny of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who took office 16 months earlier on a platform of economic reform and a pledge to halve the AfD’s support. The twin elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin therefore arrived when the CDU’s national standing was already fragile.
Data & Statistics
- AfD projected vote: 37-38 % (BBC, CNN, public broadcasters).
- CDU projected vote in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: 5-6 % (BBC, CNN; Forschungsgruppe Wahlen).
- Die Linke projected vote in Berlin: 24.5-26 %.
- SPD projected vote in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: 36 %.
- Parliamentary entry threshold: 5 %.
Official Statements & Responses
Chancellor Merz called the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern outcome “a disaster” and reiterated that his reform agenda must proceed, arguing that “the reforms have to come” and that he bears responsibility for moving the country forward. He framed his tenure as a four-year mandate, emphasizing the need for “backbone, steadfastness and patience” in confronting Germany’s economic challenges.
Burkard Dregger, a senior CDU figure in Berlin, defended Merz, stating that the electorate is “impatient” and that it is unrealistic to expect all issues to be solved within a single year. He urged party members to give Merz the full four-year term he was elected to serve.
Criticism & Opposition
AfD co-chair Alice Weidel argued that the CDU has been “strongly damaged” and questioned the party’s ability to continue under Merz’s leadership. AfD national co-leader Tino Chrupalla called for Merz’s resignation, characterising the chancellor’s response as “feeble” and urging him to accept responsibility.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the precise AfD share in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, ranging from 37 % to 38 % (BBC, CNN, public broadcasters). CDU projections also vary between 5 % and 6 % (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen). No source provides a final certified result, leaving the exact vote shares pending official confirmation.
Verbatim Quotes
What’s Next
Analysts note that the CDU could consider a confidence vote in the Bundestag later this year if Merz fails to secure parliamentary backing for key budgetary and reform measures. The party is also debating whether to separate the chancellor’s office from the CDU leadership, a move that would allow Merz to remain head of government while stepping down as party chair. Both options would require navigating Germany’s constitutional provisions for a constructive vote of no confidence, a mechanism used only once since 1982.
