Baltic Intelligence Chiefs Warn of Heightened Russian Sabotage and Possible NATO Incursions

European security services have signaled that Russia may be preparing “more decisive action” in Europe within the coming months. He described the Kremlin’s current tactic as “escalate to de-escalate,” aiming to weaken European support for Ukraine. Swedish military intelligence chief Thomas Nilsson characterized recent sabotage—such as the armed-drone incident at Leipzig airport—as a “game-changer” intended to sow panic and strain NATO cohesion.

The Guardian

The warning comes as the fifth winter of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, with both sides intensifying drone and missile strikes. Ukraine has recently targeted Russian oil infrastructure, while Moscow continues a campaign of sabotage against European sites that back Kyiv, including “more than a dozen drones” that entered Polish airspace a year ago.

The Guardian

Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk briefed parliament that intelligence assessments suggest Russia could launch drone or missile attacks on NATO territory in the coming months. French president Emmanuel Macron called Tusk’s warnings “sound and well-documented” and convened an emergency meeting with party leaders and 2027 presidential candidates. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed rumours of a NATO attack as “nothing to do with reality.”

The Guardian

• “We don’t see indications of an imminent attack,” — Normunds Mežviets, director general, Latvia’s VDD

The Guardian

• “I haven’t seen any signs that there is a serious consideration in Moscow about real negotiations,” — Thomas Nilsson, head, Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service

The Guardian