Full Breakdown
Can Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz Be Ousted?
By Drooid · · How we work
Current Political Standing
Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces historically low public support. The Deutschlandtrend representative survey, carried out by Infratest-Dimap for ARD in early September, recorded only 13 % of respondents saying Merz was doing a good job. The same period saw the CDU’s vote share in the Saxony-Anhalt state election drop by roughly half compared with 2021, intensifying criticism from within the party and its coalition partners—the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Despite the pressure, Merz has indicated he does not intend to resign.
Constitutional Paths to Removal
Germany’s Basic Law provides three mechanisms for ending a chancellor’s tenure:
1. Voluntary Resignation – The chancellor may step down at any time, as Willy Brandt did in May 1974 after a spy scandal. The governing coalition can then elect a successor with an absolute majority of all Bundestag members.
2. Constructive Vote of No-Confidence – Parliament can replace a chancellor only by simultaneously electing a new candidate. Helmut Schmidt lost a coalition partner in 1982, leading to a successful vote that installed Helmut Kohl as chancellor. The article notes that a similar move against Merz is “very remote” because the CDU/CSU and SPD wish to preserve their coalition and lack a clear rival candidate; North Rhine-Westphalia premier Hendrik Wüst is mentioned only as a speculative successor.
3. Confidence Vote Followed by Dissolution – The Bundestag may be asked to express confidence in the chancellor; failure can trigger a presidential dissolution and new elections. Gerhard Schröder employed this tool in November 2001, linking the vote to a decision on deploying troops to Afghanistan after the September 11 attacks. Merz has publicly ruled out calling such a vote, and there are no signs of a coalition split that would make it viable.
Assessment of Likelihood
The analysis concludes that resignation remains Merz’s only realistic exit route, but he has shown no intention to use it. A constructive vote of no-confidence is deemed improbable given party loyalty and the absence of an agreed successor. A confidence vote is also unlikely because Merz has dismissed the option and coalition cohesion appears intact. Consequently, the current government is expected to continue unchanged in the near term.
Potential Consequences
If the chancellor were to lose a confidence vote, the president could dissolve the Bundestag, prompting early elections. However, both the SPD and the Union (CDU/CSU) are reported to avoid elections while their own approval ratings are low. The article cautions that Berlin’s political landscape remains fluid, leaving open the possibility of unforeseen developments.