Full Breakdown
Former PA Minister Sufian Abu Zaida Reveals Pre-Oct 7 Mediation and Hamas Warning
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: “Coal Eyes” Relays Sinwar’s Threat
Former Palestinian Authority minister for prisoner affairs Sufian Abu Zaida said he was the intermediary “Coal Eyes,” through whom Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar warned Israel in September 2023 of a “massive surprise” – using the Arabic term *zilzal* (“earthquake”). Abu Zaida passed the message to a Palestinian adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, who relayed it to Shin Bet; journalists say this prompted a call from the Emirati president to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Background & Context
Abu Zaida, a senior Fatah figure, has acted as a bridge between Israel, Hamas and the UAE. His contacts helped sustain a channel aimed at exchanging four Israeli hostages (Hadar Goldin, Oron Shaul, Avera Mengistu, Hisham al-Sayed) for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, a lift of the Gaza blockade and improvements to electricity and water supplies. The talks, launched with Netanyahu’s approval, were intended to avoid direct Israeli-Hamas negotiations.
Timeline
- Early 2023 – Indirect contacts between Israel and Hamas begin, mediated by Abu Zaida.
- Mid-September 2023 – Sinwar meets Abu Zaida in Gaza, delivers the *zilzal* warning and asks it to be conveyed verbatim to Israel.
- September 15, 2023 – The Emirati adviser informs President bin Zayed; Abu Zaida also informs Shin Bet.
- Late September 2023 – Journalists report that bin Zayed placed a 45-minute call to Netanyahu.
- October 7, 2023 – Hamas launches the large-scale attack.
Data & Statistics
- Hostages at stake: Four Israeli civilians and the bodies of two IDF soldiers.
- Proposed Israeli concessions: Release of “hundreds” of Palestinian prisoners, easing of the Gaza blockade, and measures to address electricity and water shortages.
Official Statements & Responses
Criticism & Opposition
A senior security official said Netanyahu’s response was to “postpone dealing with the problem,” focusing on capability development while “calming the situation.” The source argued that fully considering the warning could have altered the agency’s assessment of the September 15 intelligence.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Journalist accounts (Times of Israel, Ynetnews, Jerusalem Post) assert that bin Zayed called Netanyahu directly after receiving Sinwar’s warning.
- Netanyahu’s office maintains no such call took place, with internal records showing no matching logs.
- The UAE has offered only a generic non-comment statement.
These divergent narratives leave open whether the Emirati warning reached the Israeli prime minister in time to influence security decisions.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Over the next few days, I will discuss the nature of the contacts I held over a year and a half between Israel and Hamas, which were aimed at reaching a deal to secure the release of the prisoners held by Hamas,” — Abu Zaida
- “People in the security establishment said — in the Shin Bet and the IDF — that if we had known about this conversation, it would have given us another assessment of the information that had already arrived on Sept. 15,” — Shlomi Eldar
What’s Next
Abu Zaida announced he will appear on Egyptian Al-Ghad TV in the coming days to disclose the full content of Sinwar’s message and further details of the mediation effort. The interview is expected to shed additional light on the pre-Oct 7 warning chain and the proposed prisoner-exchange framework.