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Intergenerational Report Warns Growth Slows, Deaths Outnumber Births

By Drooid · Sep 21, 2026, 2:27 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Treasury Releases Report

Treasury, led by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, released the 2026 Intergenerational Report.
The report projects economic growth of 2% for the next 40 years, down from 3%.
Fertility is projected to fall to 1.34 per woman by 2065-66, causing deaths to outnumber births.
People aged 65 plus will make up 25% of Australians by 2065-66, with 5% over 85.
Government spending will rise 1.1 points to 27.4% of GDP by the mid-2060s.

Summary

Burke Targets Arrivals

Net overseas migration reached 292,000, surpassing the 245,000 forecast.
Home affairs minister Tony Burke aims to cut arrivals to 225,000 over two years.
Proposed visa changes would reduce third-year temporary visas from about 31,000 to 5,000.
Working holiday visas may fall from 57,000 to 45,000 under a new ballot system.
Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie floated reviving the 2004 baby bonus, citing a 6.5% birth rise.

History

Historical Context

Japan’s demographic reports since the 1990s warned that low fertility and high life expectancy would shrink the population, with seniors about 26 % in 2014 and the total falling from a 2008 peak of 128 million. Australia’s 2026 Intergenerational Report forecasts similar ageing, leading Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke and MP Andrew Hastie to push tighter visas and a revived baby bonus.

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Treasury Releases Report

Treasury, led by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, released the 2026 Intergenerational Report.
The report projects economic growth of 2% for the next 40 years, down from 3%.
Fertility is projected to fall to 1.34 per woman by 2065-66, causing deaths to outnumber births.
People aged 65 plus will make up 25% of Australians by 2065-66, with 5% over 85.
Government spending will rise 1.1 points to 27.4% of GDP by the mid-2060s.

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