Story perspectives

ReconMR Poll Shows Talarico Leads Paxton 49%-43%

By Drooid · Sep 21, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Talarico Leads Paxton

Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 49%-43% in a ReconMR/Texas Pulse poll conducted Sept. 8-11.
Independent voters now favor Talarico 64%-24%, up from 53%-30% in July.
Prediction markets assign Talarico about a 60% chance of winning versus roughly 40% for Paxton.
MAGA Inc. booked $10 million TV ad time in Texas after spending $100 million against Paxton in the primary.

Summary

Hinojosa Accuses Abbott

Hinojosa accuses Abbott of permitting data-center expansion and installing Flock cameras to build a state surveillance network.
She says Abbott’s backing of a billionaire-donor school voucher program harms public schools.
A poll shows Abbott’s border-security focus gives him a 53%-39% advantage over Hinojosa on that issue.
Voters are divided on data-center construction, with 45% favoring Hinojosa’s plan versus 42% supporting Abbott.
Independent voters view Hinojosa as more authentic and honest, while seeing Abbott as more qualified.

History

Historical Context

In 2001, after the legislature missed the post-census redistricting, the Republican-run Legislative Redistricting Board and Tom DeLay’s TRMPAC (which raised over $1 million in 2002) engineered a mid-decade map that gave Republicans a U.S. House majority by 2004. That playbook resurfaces as MAGA Inc. spends $10 million on TV ads for James Talarico and Governor Greg Abbott expands surveillance-linked data centers, using money and technology to shape Texas voters.

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Talarico Leads Paxton

Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 49%-43% in a ReconMR/Texas Pulse poll conducted Sept. 8-11.
Independent voters now favor Talarico 64%-24%, up from 53%-30% in July.
Prediction markets assign Talarico about a 60% chance of winning versus roughly 40% for Paxton.
MAGA Inc. booked $10 million TV ad time in Texas after spending $100 million against Paxton in the primary.

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